Biden's VP Pick: A Symbolic Choice in a Post-George Floyd America

Strategic Insights -

As protests over George Floyd's murder continue to ravage the country, Joe Biden is under increasing pressure to name a black woman as his vice presidential running mate. This decision is not only a nod to his own gaffes and the demands of the black community but also a calculated move to win over black voters and ensure their turnout in the upcoming election. Biden's campaign was revived by the support of black voters in South Carolina, where he won a landslide victory with 61% of the vote. Rep. Jim Clyburn's endorsement was the turning point in the race, and Clyburn now believes that having an African American woman on the ticket would be a plus for Biden.

Key Takeaways:

  • Joe Biden's decision to name a black woman as his vice presidential running mate is largely driven by his own gaffes, including his "you ain't black" comment to Charlamagne tha God, and the ongoing protests over George Floyd's murder.
  • Biden's campaign was revived by the support of black voters in South Carolina, where he won 61% of the vote, but he angered many in the black community when he wrote the 1994 crime bill.
  • Rep. Jim Clyburn believes that having an African American woman on the ticket would be a plus for Biden and that his decision should be based on winning, not on demographics.
  • One of the central reasons Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election was that black voters dropped as a percentage of the overall electorate, and she won them less overwhelmingly than had Barack Obama.
  • Politics at the presidential level is often about symbolism, and Biden's choice of a vice president will reveal how he views his party, the country, and the world.
  • Biden has hinted at the need for major action and different choices in addressing the issue of systemic racism, and picking a black woman_vp would send a signal about his commitment to change the racial dynamics in America.
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris, Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms, and Florida Rep. Val Demings are among the African American women who would make excellent choices for VP.

Statistics:

  • 56% of the South Carolina primary electorate were black voters, who went overwhelmingly (61%) for Biden (CNN).
  • Black voters made up a majority of the South Carolina primary electorate, and their support propelled Biden to a series of wins on Super Tuesday (CNN).
  • One of the central reasons Hillary Clinton lost the 2016 election was that black voters dropped as a percentage of the overall electorate, from 20% in 2012 to 17% in 2016 (CNN).
  • If Biden can drive black turnout to the level it was during Obama's two victories, he almost certainly would have won the 2016 election (CNN).

Sources:

  • CNN: "The biggest choice of Joe Biden's political life is being made for him -- by his own gaffes and the ongoing protests over the murder of George Floyd"
  • The Washington Post: "Rep. Jim Clyburn: Biden's VP pick 'will be a plus' to have an African American woman on the ticket"
  • CNN: "Analysis: Joe Biden's VP pick could be his best chance to win the White House"