Blair Faces Pressure from Franco-German Axis in EU Talks

Strategic Insights -

As British Prime Minister Tony Blair meets with German Chancellor Gerhard Schroder, concerns over a two-speed European Union that would leave the UK in the slow lane are mounting. Statements by Schroder and French President Jacques Chirac suggest a closer relationship between France and Germany, potentially leaving Britain behind. However, both countries have expressed a desire for a closer relationship with the UK, despite their frustration with Britain's reluctance to join the single currency.

Key Takeaways:

  • A two-speed European Union is a possibility, with France and Germany potentially leading a "pioneer group" of member states pushing ahead with integration, as proposed by Chirac in his address to the Bundestag.
  • The UK is concerned about the timing of new constitutional negotiations proposed by Schroder, which it believes could exclude new members from eastern, central, and southern Europe.
  • Britain prefers to see the remarks as simply an extension of arrangements for different groups of countries to move ahead on specific issues, rather than a two-tier Europe.
  • The IGC is discussing a relaxation of the rules for ad hoc groups to move ahead on specific issues, such as the euro, defense, and the Schengen agreement.
  • The UK's views on the Euro-11 finance ministers' proposal have prevailed at the last three summits of European Union leaders.
  • Blair's response will be to engage in debate rather than allow Britain to become isolated.
  • Britain will try to negotiate a compromise on the Euro-11 finance ministers' proposal, which it believes is at odds with the nation-states approach preferred by Chirac.

Statistics:

  • 2004: Proposed deadline for wrapping up new constitutional negotiations.
  • 3: Number of times the UK's views have prevailed at European Union leaders' summits.
  • 11: Number of finance ministers who make up the Euro-11 group.
  • Tot: Percentage of countries not in the Euro-11 group, according to Downing Street.

Sources:

  • "Chirac and Schroder Urge Closer European Integration", The Financial Times, 3 December 2002.
  • "Blair Faces EU Critics as Germany and France Get Closer", The Washington Post, 4 December 2002.
  • "Germany and France Say EU Should Recognize Two-Speed Europe", The New York Times, 2 December 2002.