Bolivia's 2025 Elections: Implications for U.S. Policy

Strategic Insights -

Bolivia is scheduled to hold presidential and legislative elections on August 17, 2025, amidst internal party divisions and deteriorating economic conditions that have fractured the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS) party's political support. A possible change in government could shift Bolivia's policies after two decades of nearly continuous governance under the MAS party. U.S.-Bolivia relations have been strained under MAS governance, in part due to Bolivia's coca policies and certain positions the Bolivian government has taken, for example, on electoral outcomes in Venezuela.

Key Takeaways:

  • The presidential election in Bolivia on August 17, 2025, is expected to be closely contested, with no candidate likely to obtain sufficient support to avoid a runoff election.
  • The three leading candidates, Samuel Doria Medina, Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga, and Andronico Rodriguez, have proposed different approaches to Bolivia's foreign policy, including reorienting away from authoritarian regimes and prioritizing relations with democratic countries.
  • The winner of the 2025 presidential election could initiate policy changes with implications for U.S.-Bolivia relations, including changes to coca policies and economic cooperation.
  • Colorado law enforcement cooperation has taken place during the Arce administration, and the leading candidates have expressed willingness to collaborate with foreign anti-narcotics agencies to combat drug trafficking.
  • The election outcome may have implications for the U.S. investment opportunities in Bolivia's lithium sector, with Doria Medina and Quiroga advocating for private sector investment and Rodriguez proposing a state-led model.
  • The election may also affect Bolivia's geopolitical alignment, with Rodriguez reportedly stating that he would evaluate reestablishing ambassador-level relations with the United States.

Statistics:

  • The 2025 presidential election is expected to have a high number of undecided voters, with 35-40 percent of voters indicating they are undecided or will cast blank or null ballots, according to polling from June and July 2025.
  • Samuel Doria Medina and Jorge "Tuto" Quiroga led in polling from June and July 2025, attracting at most about 25% and 23% support, respectively.
  • Andronico Rodriguez attracted about 14% support in the June poll but dropped to 6%-7% support in July.
  • 8 candidates are running in the 2025 presidential election.
  • The presidential election on October 19, 2025, in the event of a runoff, would be the first presidential election in Bolivia since the 2020 election, which was generally free and fair, as assessed by observers.
  • The winner of the presidential election would be inaugurated on November 8, 2025.

Sources:

  • Congressional Research Service. (2025, August 14). Bolivia's 2025 Elections: Implications for U.S. Policy. Retrieved from https://www.congress.gov/crs_external_products/IN/PDF/IN12593/IN12593.2.pdf
  • Morales, E. (2025, June). Rejected candidacy and protests.