Bolivia's Presidential Election: A Watershed Moment

Strategic Insights -

As the Aug. 17 election approaches, Bolivia's presidential contest has taken an unexpected turn. Samuel Doria Medina, a 66-year-old multimillionaire, has emerged as a front-runner, promising to arrest former President Evo Morales, who has maintained a tight grip on politics for nearly two decades. Medina, a successful businessman and entrepreneur, is tapping into public outrage over economic woes, including crippling dollar shortages, fuel shortages, and the decline of the Movement Toward Socialism (MAS) party's economic model. With Morales' loyalists vowing to leave their ballots blank, Medina sees an opportunity to win over traditional MAS party supporters and resolve the country's economic crisis within his first 100 days.

Key Takeaways:

  • Doria Medina, a former cement magnate, is running for president of Bolivia, promising to arrest Morales and cozy up to the United States.
  • Polls show Doria Medina as a front-runner in the Aug. 17 election, tapping public outrage over economic woes, including dollar shortages, fuel shortages, and the decline of the MAS party's economic model.
  • Medina vows to resolve the country's economic crisis, including dollar shortages and fuel shortages, within his first 100 days as president.
  • He promises to scrap subsidies, which have long been a politically sensitive pillar of the MAS party's economic policy, and overhaul state-owned companies.
  • Medina's shift in foreign policy aims to reestablish relations with the United States and seek agreements to export Bolivian products to the largest market in the world.
  • Bolivia's large lithium reserves, including key component Salar de Uyuni, could become a major prize for the United States, which has sought stakes in Bolivian lithium mines.
  • Morales faces an arrest warrant and charges related to his relationship with a 15-year-old girl, which he denies are politcally motivated.
  • Medina has dismissed Morales' threats to protest the elections, stating that the former president no longer has the political strength to do so.

Statistics:

  • Bolivia's population stands at 12 million.
  • The value of a Boliviano on the black market is around half the official exchange rate.
  • Bolivia hemorrhaged $3 billion subsidizing gasoline and fuel last year.
  • The MAS party has maintained power in Bolivia for nearly two decades.
  • Morales presided over a period of rising growth and falling poverty from 2006-2019.

Sources:

  • AP News (LA PAZ, Bolivia), August 2023.
  • DeBre reported from Buenos Aires, Argentina.
  • AP's coverage of Latin America and the Caribbean.