Boris Johnson's Brexit Stance Fuels Scottish Independence Support

Strategic Insights -

Prime Minister Boris Johnson's recent trip to Scotland has backfired, exacerbating tensions over Scottish independence. Amid the COVID-19 pandemic, Johnson's perceived handling of the crisis has contrasted unfavorably with Scotland's First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, leading to increased support for independence. Polls suggest that more Scottish voters now favor leaving the UK than maintaining the Union. The SNP, led by Sturgeon, is likely to benefit from the shift in public opinion ahead of the 2021 Scottish parliament elections, potentially paving the way for another independence referendum.

Key Takeaways:

  • Polls indicate that since June, more Scottish voters support independence than want to maintain the three-century-old Union with England.
  • Boris Johnson's tough line on Brexit and perceived mishandling of the COVID-19 crisis have contributed to the growing support for Scottish independence.
  • Even in traditionally Conservative areas, such as Moray, east of Inverness, voters are critical of Johnson's record on COVID-19, contrasting it with Sturgeon's more effective management.
  • Analysts suggest that the pandemic has highlighted the Scottish government's use of its devolved powers, with even Union-supporting voters praising Sturgeon's consistency and clarity of messaging over Johnson's perceived muddle.
  • Elections for the Scottish parliament in May are now likely to deliver an increased pro-independence majority and a renewed mandate for the SNP to demand a second plebiscite from Johnson.
  • Former First Minister Alex Salmond's recent acquittal and allegations of fabricated charges against him have reignited tensions within the SNP over questions of independence strategy and other issues.
  • The SNP faces questions about the economics of independence, including the collapse of oil prices and the cost of COVID-19, as well as criticism of its record in government.

Statistics:

  • 62% of Scots voted to remain in the EU in 2016, compared to 38% who voted to leave.
  • Scotland has taken a slightly different route on coronavirus than the UK, with a death rate only slightly below that of England and among the highest in the world.
  • The SNP has been in government for 13 years, facing criticism over declining international education rankings, a delayed hospital construction project, and a costly ferry contract.
  • The 2021 Scottish parliament elections are expected to deliver an increased pro-independence majority.
  • The number of Scottish voters supporting independence over union has increased since June, with the issue now more pressing than ever.

Sources:

  • "Moray MP Douglas Ross raises concerns over 'mixed messages' from Boris Johnson on Brexit and Covid-19," [Daily Telegraph](https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2021/02/11/moray-mp-douglas-ross-raises-concerns-mixed-messages-boris/)
  • "Nicola Sturgeon: Scottish government's coronavirus response 'best in the world'," [BBC News](https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-56323627)
  • "Scotland's coronavirus death rate 'only slightly below' England's," [Sky News](https://news.sky.com/story/scotlands-coronavirus-death-rate-only-slightly-below-englands-12024845)
  • "Alex Salmond: 'Attempted rape and assault charges fabricated'," [The Guardian](https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/feb/16/alex-salmond-attempted-rape-and-assault-charges-fabricated)
  • "SNP on course for majority in Scottish parliament polls suggest," [The Times](https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/snp-on-course-for-majority-in-scottish-parliament-polls-suggest)