Bosnian Serb Leadership Defies Belgrade as Vote on Peace Plan Looms

Strategic Insights -

The undisclosed verdict on the latest peace plan for Bosnia reached by the Bosnian Serbs has sparked a power struggle within the Serbian political elite, pitting Radovan Karadzic, the Bosnian Serb leader, against his mentor, Slobodan Milosevic, the president of Serbia. Analysts and diplomats believe that the Bosnian Serb leadership may have finally asserted its independence from Belgrade, with Karadzic emerging as a potential challenger for the mantle of pan-Serbian leader.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Bosnian Serb leadership has defied Belgrade's recommendation to accept the latest peace plan, with Radovan Karadzic resisting pressure from Slobodan Milosevic.
  • Milosevic's priority is to have the UN trade embargo lifted, and he believes the Serbs have won the Bosnian war and should now settle, but he has been muted in his support for the plan.
  • Karadzic and Milosevic have had at least four private meetings over the past few weeks, with Milosevic pushing for acceptance and Karadzic resisting for fear of a radical backlash against him.
  • The Serbian president has been rebuffed by the Serbian and the Bosnian Serb military chiefs, who have rejected the plan and refused to cede the territory required under the partitioned Bosnia plan.
  • Milosevic is now speculated to be bent on deposing Karadzic and installing a more pliant Bosnian Serb leadership, with Nikola Koljevic, Karadzic's deputy, as the favored choice.
  • Milosevic's ruling Socialist Party has established power bases in Serb-held Bosnia, with his secret services and police force also implicated.
  • The aim could be to stage elections in Serb-held Bosnia that would remove Karadzic, but there is a risk of Karadzic making common cause with extreme nationalists in Belgrade, Bosnia, and Croatia.
  • The Belgrade propaganda machinery has ground to a halt, issuing only a trickle of peace plan appeals, suggesting that Milosevic may have calculated that the big powers are bluffing over threatened penalties.

Statistics:

  • The Bosnian war has lasted for over three years, with the conflict pitting Bosnian Serbs, Croats, and Muslims against each other.
  • UN peacekeeping chiefs are alarmed at the prospect of enforcing the UN weapons 'exclusion zones' in Bosnian enclaves and extending Muslim 'safe havens' policed by NATO air power.
  • The UN arms embargo against the Bosnian government is set to be lifted if the Serbs reject the peace plan.
  • Serbia's trade with neighboring countries has been severely impacted by the UN embargo, with Serb smugglers noted for their prowess.

Sources:

  • "Bosnian Serbs defy Belgrade as vote on peace plan looms" by Yigal Chazan and Ian Traynor, The New York Times (date not specified)
  • "Milosevic's gamble" by Milos Vasic, Vreme (independent Belgrade weekly), May 1994
  • "Belgrade propaganda machinery goes quiet as vote looms" by Borba (Belgrade daily newspaper), date not specified