Bosnian Serb Regime on Brink of Collapse as Dayton Peace Agreement Takes Hold

Strategic Insights -

The Bosnian Serb rebel regime is on the verge of collapse after the signing of the Dayton peace agreement, which imposes significant restrictions on its leaders, Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic. The agreement, brokered by Serbian President Slobodan Milosevic, has been welcomed by Serb civilian and military officials in Banja Luka, a major city under rebel control, while the rebel leaders at Pale, near Sarajevo, have been silent since the deal was announced on Tuesday in Dayton, Ohio. Momcilo Krajisnik, the speaker of the Bosnian Serb assembly, has rejected the deal, but his objections have been dismissed by the US state department, which says the Serbs "can't re-fight the war" in Bosnia.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Dayton peace agreement imposes severe restrictions on Bosnian Serb leaders Radovan Karadzic and General Ratko Mladic, who will be barred from office and risk being handed over by President Milosevic to the UN tribunal in The Hague.
  • Momcilo Krajisnik, the speaker of the Bosnian Serb assembly, has rejected the deal, but his objections have been dismissed by the US state department.
  • The agreement has been welcomed by Serb civilian and military officials in Banja Luka, with the mayor describing it as a "firm foundation for economic recovery".
  • The deployment of Nato troops as part of a planned implementation force could be forestalled if the Bosnian Serb regime defies the agreement, leading to the reimposition of sanctions on Yugoslavia under President Milosevic's control.
  • Bosnian Muslim officials have expressed skepticism about the agreement, with some doubting whether it will stick and others wondering if Mr Silajdzic will gain more influence in the peace process.

Statistics:

  • 4 years: the time since the Balkan conflict began
  • 44 months: the duration of the Bosnian Serb regime
  • 2-3 times: the expected increase in tourist arrivals in Croatia after a peace deal in Bosnia
  • 1,000: the number of people who welcomed President Alija Izetbegovic's return to Sarajevo
  • 10 minutes: the time before the Dayton agreement was initialled, when Momcilo Krajisnik apparently first saw its contents

Sources:

  • The Guardian (no specific date mentioned)
  • UN officials (no specific date mentioned)
  • Bosnian government officials (no specific date mentioned)
  • Croatia's president, Franjo Tudjman (no specific date mentioned)
  • The US state department (no specific date mentioned)