Brexit Five Years On: A Divided UK Fights Internal Battles

Strategic Insights -

The United Kingdom's tumultuous exit from the European Union, completed in 2020, has only deepened the country's internal divisions. A decade after David Cameron, then the Conservative leader, attempted to steer the party away from the European issue, Britain remains as divided as ever. The vote, meant to settle the UK's relationship with Europe, has left the country with more questions than answers.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Brexit referendum has had far-reaching consequences for the UK, particularly in Northern Ireland, where the fate of the Good Friday Agreement hangs in the balance.
  • The Northern Irish Protocol, designed to keep the border open and prevent sectarian violence, has become a major point of contention between the UK and EU, with the UK threatening to extend a grace period on customs checks and the EU warning of retaliatory tariffs.
  • The Scottish National Party has capitalized on the Brexit vote, claiming that Scotland was dragged out of the EU against its will, and pushing for Scottish independence, which is now strongly linked to EU membership.
  • Five years after the referendum, polls show that the majority of people in the UK are still worried about Brexit, and many still identify strongly with their leave or remain vote.
  • The debate over Europe continues to dominate UK politics, with the British government frequently engaging in tit-for-tat politics with the EU, distracting from other pressing issues, such as the UK's economic future.
  • Critics argue that the UK has no well-defined economic strategy to replace EU membership, and that the EU is preparing for a long period of antagonism from the UK.

Statistics:

  • Over 1.4 million people in Northern Ireland voted to remain in the EU, with 53.6% of the region's population backing Remain in the 2016 referendum.
  • 50% of Scots voted to remain in the EU in the 2021 Scottish Parliament election.
  • According to a March 2022 Gallup poll, 63% of Britons believe that the UK is "definitely" or "mostly" worse off since the Brexit vote.
  • The UK's GDP has decreased by 3.4% since the Brexit vote, according to the European Commission.
  • The UK's trade deficit with the EU has increased by 22% since the Brexit vote, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

Sources:

  • CNN interview with Katy Hayward, professor in political sociology at Queen's University, Belfast
  • Ipsos MORI polling data
  • BBC News
  • The Guardian
  • BBC News: "Brexit: What has happened and what comes next?"
  • European Commission: "UK trade with the European Union since Brexit"
  • Office for National Statistics (ONS): "UK trade in goods and services: February 2022"