Brexit's Wounded Economy: A Legacy of "Treachery and Delusion"

Strategic Insights -

The remnants of the Brexit enthusiasts are still celebrating, but their glee is short-lived. The UK's fragile economy is struggling to cope with the 15% loss in trade and 4% reduction in productivity since leaving the EU. Meanwhile, the trade deals with the US and India are touted as victories, but the Centre for European Reform's trade expert, John Springford, describes the 0.13% boost to the economy from the India deal as a "rounding error." The Conservatives and Boris Johnson are widely blamed for the Brexit debacle, with 88% and 84% of Britons holding them responsible.

Key Takeaways:

  • The UK's economy has suffered a 15% loss in trade and 4% reduction in productivity since leaving the EU, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility.
  • The India trade deal is worth only 0.13% to the UK economy, making it a "rounding error" when compared to the losses caused by Brexit.
  • The majority of Britons (56%) want to rejoin the EU, with 31% still believing Brexit was right and 61% considering it a failure.
  • 88% and 84% of Britons blame the Conservatives and Boris Johnson, respectively, for the Brexit debacle.
  • More than two-thirds (67%) of Britons blame Nigel Farage for the Brexit chaos.
  • The Conservative and Labour parties are hesitant to take bold steps towards rejoining the EU, fearing public opinion may change if confronted with actual re-entry terms.

Statistics:

  • 15% loss in trade since leaving the EU (Office for Budget Responsibility)
  • 4% reduction in productivity since 2020 (Office for Budget Responsibility)
  • 0.13% boost to the economy from the India trade deal (Department for Business and Trade analysis)
  • US trade deal: 0.16% boost to the economy (Department for Business and Trade analysis)
  • Australia trade deal: 0.08% boost to the economy (Department for Business and Trade analysis)
  • New Zealand trade deal: 0.03% boost to the economy (Department for Business and Trade analysis)
  • 40% of the UK's trade is with the EU (including the European Economic Area and Switzerland)
  • India has just 2% of the UK's trade
  • 31% of Britons still think Brexit was the right decision
  • 61% consider Brexit a failure
  • 88% of Britons blame the Conservatives for Brexit
  • 84% of Britons blame Boris Johnson for Brexit
  • 67% of Britons blame Nigel Farage for Brexit
  • 56% of Britons want to rejoin the EU

Sources:

  • Polly Toynbee, "Those who misled the country over Brexit are usually quieter these days", The Guardian
  • Office for Budget Responsibility, "Economic and Fiscal Outlook"
  • Centre for European Reform, "The UK's Trade Deals"
  • Department for Business and Trade, "Trade Agreements"
  • European Movement, "Water Quality in the EU and the UK"
  • European Social Survey, "Public Opinion on Brexit"
  • YouGov, "Public Opinion on Rejoining the EU"