British Policy on Bosnia: A Shift in Rhetoric, Not Action

Strategic Insights -

The British government's stance on Bosnia seems to have undergone a significant change in recent days, but its commitment to action remains uncertain. Initially, on Monday, Prime Minister John Major demanded "tough and muscular action" to end the slaughter of civilians in Sarajevo, while Foreign Secretary Douglas Hurd expressed support for the use of air power to break the siege. However, by Thursday, ministers revealed that the British decision to support Nato's ultimatum had been largely driven by pressure from France and America, rather than a genuine desire to take decisive action.

Key Takeaways:

  • British ministers initially appeared to support Nato's ultimatum and the use of air power to end the siege of Sarajevo.
  • However, by Thursday, they claimed that the decision was largely driven by pressure from France and America, rather than a genuine desire to take decisive action.
  • This shift in rhetoric suggests that the British government is more concerned with avoiding criticism from Tory backbenchers than with taking a clear stance on the issue.
  • The government's statements on Thursday weakened the deterrent effect of Nato's ultimatum, which could potentially make air strikes more likely.
  • British ministers are now sending mixed signals about their commitment to the ultimatum, which may undermine public support for the action.
  • The government's handling of the situation is seen as a "sorry spectacle" by some commentators, particularly Tory backbenchers.

Statistics:

  • The number of civilians killed in Sarajevo has increased significantly in recent days.
  • Nato's ultimatum is set to expire on a specific date, at which point air strikes may be launched.
  • British forces have been ordered to halt convoy escorts, but it is unclear what this will achieve in terms of the overall strategy.
  • The British government has claimed that the strategy will be reviewed in three weeks, but it is unclear what this will involve.

Sources:

  • The Times, "The Government has fluffed its lines on Bosnia" (no date specified)
  • The Times, "British support for Nato ultimatum: a last-minute rush" (no date specified)