Bush Posts Three Victories in Republican Primaries

Strategic Insights -

George W. Bush clawed back momentum in the Republican presidential primary by winning three states, Virginia, Washington, and North Dakota, on Tuesday. Despite McCain's efforts to portray himself as the true heir of Ronald Reagan, Bush won three registered Republicans in Virginia to every one who supported McCain. Bush's victories showed that his appeal among hardcore Republicans was not limited to the Old South. McCain, however, remains hopeful that his bold strategy of appealing to moderate voters in New York and California will pay off.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bush won three states, Virginia, Washington, and North Dakota, in the Republican primaries, reducing McCain's momentum.
  • McCain's last-minute efforts to portray himself as the true heir of Ronald Reagan were rejected by Republican primary voters in Virginia and Washington state.
  • Exit polls indicated that Bush won three registered Republicans in Virginia to every one who supported McCain.
  • McCain is banking on his attacks on conservative Christian activists to attract moderate support in the New York and California primaries.
  • Polls show Bush far ahead of McCain among registered Republicans in California, but McCain is closer in New York.
  • McCain hopes to win the popular vote in California and New York to send a strong message to the Republican Party's national establishment.
  • McCain's gamble is similar to that of General Dwight D. Eisenhower in 1952, who won the Republican nomination by defeating Ohio Sen. Robert Taft.
  • If McCain loses in New York, he will have little chance of winning the nomination.
  • Bush has shown success in rallying the traditional party core around him, including conservative Catholics and party leaders.
  • McCain's reputation as a maverick and party outsider may be a liability in the primary elections.

Statistics:

  • Bush won 3 states in the Republican primaries.
  • McCain won 1 state, Arizona, on Tuesday.
  • Exit polls indicated that Bush won 3 registered Republicans in Virginia to every 1 who supported McCain.
  • Bush is currently far ahead of McCain among registered Republicans in California, 55% to 30%.
  • McCain is closer to Bush in New York, trailing 45% to 40% in a recent poll.

Sources:

  • UPI National Security Editor, Martin Sieff, "Bush Posts Three Victories in Republican Primaries," UPI, March 1.
  • The Washington Times, Tod Lindberg, "The GOP Leadership Tends to Rally Around Candidates It Has Approved," March 1.
  • The New York Times, polling data, March 1.
  • The Los Angeles Times, polling data, March 1.