Bush Surges in Polls, But Vulnerabilities Remain

Strategic Insights -

George W. Bush has taken a lead in three national polls, but experts caution that his vulnerabilities remain, particularly with his job approval rating and concerns about the war in Iraq. While the polls show a small increase for Bush, Democratic supporters should not give up hope, and Republicans should not celebrate just yet. The polls also reveal that Bush's majority support is lacking, with voters who are undecided often opposing the incumbent. President Bush's overall job approval rating is cause for concern, with him trailing behind the last two presidents to be re-elected.

Key Takeaways:

  • In a recent ABC News/Washington Post survey, Bush led Kerry 48% to 43% with Nader at 6%, and 49% to 48% without Nader.
  • A USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll showed Bush leading Kerry 47% to 44% with Nader at 5%, and 50% to 46% without Nader.
  • An Investor's Business Daily poll confirmed the trend, with Bush at 44%, Kerry at 40%, and Nader at 4%.
  • Bush's vulnerabilities include his job approval rating, with him trailing behind the last two presidents to be re-elected in April of their re-election years.
  • President Bush's overall job approval rating is 51% and 52% in two polls, with Reagan at 54% and Clinton at 56% at a similar point in their re-election years.
  • Bush has failed to shift a single voter's view of him personally, with his favorability rating almost exactly where it was before his ads began.
  • The percentage of Americans who believe that "things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track" has climbed to 57% from 46% last April.
  • 54% of voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq, with 65% believing the level of American casualties is "unacceptable".
  • The margin of error in the polls is between 3% and 3.5%, making the race a dead heat.

Statistics:

  • Bush's lead over Kerry is 5% with Nader in the ABC News/Washington Post survey.
  • Bush's lead over Kerry is 2% without Nader in the same survey.
  • Bush's lead over Kerry is 3% in the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll.
  • Bush's lead over Kerry is 4% without Nader in the USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll.
  • Bush's job approval rating is 51% and 52% in two polls.
  • Bush's favorability rating is almost exactly where it was before his ads began.
  • 57% of Americans believe that "things have gotten pretty seriously off on the wrong track".
  • 54% of voters disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq.
  • 65% of voters believe the level of American casualties in Iraq is "unacceptable".

Sources:

  • ABC News/Washington Post survey
  • USA Today/CNN/Gallup poll
  • Investor's Business Daily poll
  • Reagan's job approval rating in April 1984
  • Clinton's job approval rating in April 1996