Bush's New York Woes: A Troubling Sign for His General Election Chances

Strategic Insights -

A solid victory in New York's Republican primary might not be enough to salvage President George W. Bush's flagging chances in the state, where his Democratic opponent, Al Gore, enjoys a significant edge. Bush's campaign is being rewritten as he struggles to win the nomination, particularly among conservative voters in South Carolina and Michigan, and his future in New York seems increasingly uncertain. The stakes are high for Bush, who has repeatedly suggested that he is the kind of Republican who can win in New York, but his difficulties in the state are a worrying sign for his general election prospects.

Key Takeaways:

  • Bush received 50.4% of the votes cast for his delegates in the Republican primary in New York, while Senator John McCain garnered 43.8%.
  • However, 38% of McCain's supporters said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in November if Bush was not the nominee, a high number that cannot be seen as good news by Bush's supporters.
  • Among Republican voters in New York City and on Long Island, 21% said they would vote for Gore in November; statewide, 22% of Republican women said they would vote for Gore.
  • Only 5% of Democratic women said they would vote for Bush, highlighting the gap between the two parties.
  • The New York Republican Party's establishment, which supported Bush, is now wracked by infighting, with fiscal disorder having undercut the party's position in the state.
  • The fact that New York seems to be on Bush's back burner is a sign of how his fortunes have been turned, particularly as he campaigned in conservative voters in South Carolina and Michigan.

Statistics:

  • 50.4%: The percentage of votes cast for Bush's delegates in the Republican primary in New York.
  • 43.8%: The percentage of votes for Senator John McCain in the Republican primary in New York.
  • 38%: The percentage of McCain's supporters who said they would vote for the Democratic candidate in November if Bush was not the nominee.
  • 21%: The percentage of Republican voters in New York City and on Long Island who said they would vote for Gore in November.
  • 22%: The percentage of Republican women who said they would vote for Gore statewide.
  • 5%: The percentage of Democratic women who said they would vote for Bush.
  • 1 million: The one-million vote registration edge enjoyed by the Democratic Party in New York.
  • 1984: The last year a Republican, Ronald Reagan, won a presidential election in New York.
  • 1988: The year Bush's father, George H.W. Bush, lost the presidential election to Michael S. Dukakis by just two percentage points.

Sources:

  • "Memo to New Yorkers: Say goodbye to George W. Bush and Al Gore" by Adam Nagourney, The New York Times, March 1, 2000.