Buyer's Market Takes Hold as Pending Home Sales Drop and Listing Prices Rise

Strategic Insights -

The US housing market is showing signs of a shift towards a buyer's market, with pending sales dropping 1% year-over-year and new listings rising 5.2% year-over-year, giving buyers more negotiating power. According to a new report from Redfin, just over 28% of homes are selling above the asking price, down from 32% a year earlier, with the biggest declines in San Jose, CA, Anaheim, CA, and Oakland, CA. The share of homes selling above asking price has fallen year-over-year in all but five of the most populous US metro areas, with more than half of homes still selling above asking price in San Jose and Oakland.

Key Takeaways:

  • Pending US home sales fell 1.1% year-over-year to their lowest level for this time of year in Redfin's records.
  • Just over one-third (37.6%) of homes went under contract within two weeks, the lowest level for this time of year since 2020.
  • There has been a big gap between the median list price and the median sale price, with the median sale price at $397,000, a $28,950 discount (-7%) from the median list price of roughly $425,950.
  • Prospective homebuyers are being sidelined by widespread economic uncertainty and high housing costs, with the median monthly housing payment just $29 shy of its record high.
  • Sellers are accepting offers below asking price and giving concessions to get deals done, giving buyers negotiating power.
  • New listings are up 5.2% year-over-year, but mortgage-purchase applications are up 10% week-over-week, signaling that pending home sales could improve soon.
  • The share of homes selling above list price has fallen year-over-year in all but five of the most populous US metro areas, with the greatest declines in San Jose, CA, Anaheim, CA, and Oakland, CA.
  • The median days on market is 36, up from 31, and the share of homes off market in two weeks is 37.6%, down from 41%.
  • The average sale-to-list price ratio is 99.1%, down from 99.6%, indicating that sellers are accepting lower offers.

Statistics:

  • Median sale price: $397,000
  • Median asking price: $425,950
  • Median monthly mortgage payment: $2,854 at a 6.85% mortgage rate
  • Pending sales: 87,720 (down 1.1% year-over-year)
  • New listings: 104,594 (up 5.2% year-over-year)
  • Active listings: 1,141,367 (up 13.9% year-over-year)
  • Months of supply: 3.9 (up 0.7 points)
  • Share of homes off market in two weeks: 37.6% (down from 41%)
  • Median days on market: 36 (up from 31)
  • Average sale-to-list price ratio: 99.1% (down from 99.6%)

Sources:

  • Redfin: Redfin: Fewer Homes Selling Above Asking Price, Buyers Now Have Negotiating Power
  • Business Wire: Redfin: Fewer Homes Selling Above Asking Price, Buyers Now Have Negotiating Power
  • Redfin: Homebuyer Demand Index
  • Mortgage NewsDaily: Daily Average 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate
  • Freddie Mac: Weekly Average 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate
  • Mortgage BankersAssociation: Mortgage-purchase applications (seasonally adjusted)
  • Redfin: Touring activity
  • Google Trends: U.S. highlights: Four weeks ending June 8, 2025
  • Redfin: Homebuyer Demand Index
  • Redfin: Metro-level data