California Leads with Most At-Risk Counties, Virginia Among Safest in Latest Housing Risk Report

Strategic Insights -

The United States continues to grapple with housing market risks, with California's counties dominating the list of the most vulnerable areas in the latest report from ATTOM. Released in September 2025, the Housing Risk Report highlighted 579 counties across the country that were at risk of housing market declines due to affordability challenges, seriously underwater mortgages, foreclosures, and unemployment rates. According to the report, 14 of the top 50 at-risk counties were in California, followed by seven in Florida, five in New Jersey, and four in Louisiana.

Key Takeaways:

  • The report found that 19 percent of counties with sufficient data to analyze had residents who would have had to spend at least half of their annualized wages to purchase and maintain a home.
  • In 63 percent of counties, residents would have had to spend at least a third of their annual wages on home expenses.
  • California counties, including Marin, Santa Cruz, Maui, Kings, and San Luis Obispo, were among the top counties where home expenses consumed the largest share of residents' annual wages, with costs exceeding 100 percent in several counties.
  • Nationally, 2.7 percent of homes were considered seriously underwater, with seven out of the 10 counties with the highest underwater rates in Louisiana.
  • The counties with the highest foreclosure rates were Dorchester County, SC; Charlotte County, FL; Oswego County, NY; Kaufman County, TX; and Lake County, IN.
  • The South had significant representation among both the most and least risky counties, with 18 counties in the South among the 50 least risky and 21 counties in the South among the 50 most risky.

Statistics:

  • 19% of counties with sufficient data to analyze had residents who would have had to spend at least half of their annual wages to purchase and maintain a home.
  • 2.7% of homes nationally were considered seriously underwater.
  • 63% of counties had residents who would have had to spend at least a third of their annual wages on home expenses.
  • The counties with the highest foreclosure rates had rates of one in every 355 to one in every 488 homes facing foreclosure.
  • The South had 18 counties among the 50 least risky and 21 counties among the 50 most risky.

Sources:

  • Source 1: ATTOM's Housing Risk Report, September 2025
  • Source 2: ATTOM's home affordability, equity, and foreclosure reports
  • Source 3: Federal government data on unemployment rates
  • Source 4: Press releases for affordability, foreclosure, and underwater-property reports (methodology for each report)
  • Source 5: ATTOM's property tax, deed, mortgage, foreclosure, environmental risk, natural hazard, neighborhood, and geospatial boundary information.