Canada Shifts Defence Ties to Europe Amid Rising Tensions with the US

Strategic Insights -

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Carney has embarked on a major foreign policy shift, prioritizing closer defence ties with the European Union over its long-standing relationship with the United States. This move comes amidst escalating tensions with Russia and China, as well as the recent US airstrikes on Iran. Mr. Carney's efforts to pivot to Europe are expected to bring significant benefits, including increased co-operation on crisis management, maritime security, and defence industries.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Canadian government has agreed to commit to raising core military spending to 3.5% of GDP, with an additional 1.5% of GDP on defence- and security-related infrastructure, in line with NATO's 5% target.
  • This pledge will cost Canada at least $50 billion in additional military spending every year.
  • Mr. Carney will sign The Strategic Defence Partnership agreement between Canada and the European Union, paving the way for Ottawa to join buyers' clubs with EU member states to procure military equipment more efficiently.
  • Canada's defence sector will secure the opportunity to supply EU countries as they ramp up military spending under the bloc's ReArm Europe program.
  • The security pact will commit Ottawa and Brussels to increased co-operation on crisis management, maritime security, cyberthreats, and defence industries.
  • The deal will also make Canada eligible to partner with one or more EU member states that are borrowing funds from the EU's €150-billion Security Action for Europe (SAFE) lending program to buy military gear.
  • Canadian officials note that the country has never used other buyers' clubs, such as NATO's support and procurement agency, with "a whole lot of enthusiasm or vigour."
  • The NATO summit will aim to agree on a deadline to reach the new 5% of GDP expenditure target by 2032 or 2035.
  • A bigger NATO military spending target will impose steep new demands on the federal treasury, particularly when considering Canada's recent trade wars with the US and China.

Statistics:

  • Canada will commit to raising core military spending to 3.5% of GDP.
  • The additional 1.5% of GDP on defence- and security-related infrastructure will cost the country at least $50 billion in additional military spending every year.
  • The EU's plan to revitalize European defences includes an €800-billion package.
  • NATO's current alliance target is 2% of GDP, while the target was increased to 5% of GDP from Mr. Trump's presidential election campaign.
  • The NATO charter's Article 5 collective-defence clause obliges members to consider an attack against any member to be an attack against all.
  • Mr. Trump stated that he won't defend allies that are not paying enough for their defence.
  • The US President's decision to bomb Iran's nuclear sites has shifted the ground underneath Mr. Carney's efforts to talk about a new foreign policy that distances Canada from the United States.
  • The US attack has also sowed division as France distanced itself from the military action.
  • Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi arrived in Moscow for meetings with Russian officials in the wake of the US attack.
  • Russia is expected to roll out 1,500 tanks, 3,000 armoured vehicles, and 200 Iskander missiles this year alone.
  • Canada's economy is hurting from trade wars with the United States and China, with a federal budget deficit of $43 billion last year.

Sources:

  • globeandmail.com
  • Foreign Affairs magazine
  • Reuters