Canada's Climate Action Plan: Progress and Challenges Ahead

Strategic Insights -

Climate change has become a pressing global concern, and Canada, along with 194 other countries, adopted the Paris Agreement in 2015, aiming to limit the global average temperature increase to well below 2 C above pre-industrial levels. In 2024, Canada committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030. However, recent reports from the Auditor General of Canada and Climate Action Tracker indicate that the country is not on track to meet its 2030 climate targets under its current policies and plans.

Key Takeaways:

  • Canada has committed to reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030, but is not on track to meet this target under its current policies and plans.
  • The government claims that its climate plan is working, citing emissions reductions and economic decoupling from emissions, but official reports and analyses indicate a significant gap between projected emissions reductions and the required targets.
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada projected that even under a best-case scenario, total emissions in 2030 will only be 19 per cent below 2005 levels.
  • Climate Action Tracker classified Canada's overall (emissions reduction) rating as "insufficient" as of August 26, 2024, despite an improvement in Canada's policies and action.
  • The new EV sales mandate and carbon pricing scheme are steps in the right direction, but additional measures are needed to move toward a "sufficient" rating.
  • Long-term offtake agreements for clean electricity increase investor security and spur growth in the renewable sector.
  • Canada needs to finalize queued policies from the 2022 climate plan, stop supporting increases in oil and gas production, shift focus from unproven technologies like Carbon Capture Storage, and stop enabling coal exports from the U.S. passthrough its territory.

Statistics:

  • Emissions in 2030 are projected to be only 19 per cent below 2005 levels, even under a best-case scenario.
  • Canada's overall emissions reduction rating was classified as "insufficient" as of August 26, 2024.
  • The climate plan aims to reduce GHG emissions by 40 to 45 per cent below 2005 levels by 2030.
  • The new EV sales mandate targets 60 per cent of new passenger car and light-duty truck sales to be electric by 2030.
  • Canada has 4 years to meet its climate targets, and the next report on the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan is due by the end of 2025.

Sources:

  • Climate Action Tracker (2024)
  • Auditor General of Canada
  • Environment and Climate Change Canada (2019)
  • Tricia Clarkson (climate change columnist and former co-chair for Peterborough Alliance for Climate Action)