Certification of Climate and Weather Models: A Path Forward for Enhanced Resilience Planning

As climate change exacerbates flooding and extreme weather events, state and local planners face challenges in accessing robust and replicable predictive models to effectively plan for emergencies. The Federation of American Scientists emphasizes the need for public resources to support broader access to reliable climate and flooding models, which can increase cost-efficiencies and empower local communities.

Key Takeaways:

The federal government can support proactive and cost-effective resiliency planning by certifying predictive climate and weather models, ensuring their quality and transparency.
A certification system and clearinghouse can enable state and local governments to discern the quality and robustness of available climate models, facilitating more proactive planning and mitigation of environmental disasters.
The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is well-positioned to establish a certification system or stamp of approval for predictive climate and weather models, starting with flood models.
Congress should direct NIST to establish a certification system, support the maintenance of agencies' capacities to build and maintain such a system, and protect funding at agencies like FEMA, NOAA, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST).
A certification system would require understanding the technical capabilities of climate models and the modeling and data needs of resilience planners and floodplain managers.
A robust certification system would also include input from non-governmental organizations, such as the Association of State Floodplain Managers, American Flood Coalition, American Society of Adaptation Professionals, and American Geophysical Union.
NIST could publish requests for information to source input more widely and consider other certification models, such as the Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) rating system.
A stamp of approval system would communicate that a model has met some minimum standard, while a certification system would require both an understanding of the technical capabilities of climate models and the modeling and data needs of resilience planners.
The implementing agency could store and host a clearinghouse or database of replicable models and results, as well as relevant contact information to make it easy for users to find reliable models and communicate with their developers.

Statistics:

50% of the Federal Emergency Management Agency's (FEMA) disaster relief fund was spent within the first two weeks of the 2025 fiscal year.
A 2024 U.S. Chamber of Commerce report estimates that every $1 spent on climate resilience and preparedness saves communities $13 in damages, cleanup costs, and economic impact, potentially adding up to billions of dollars in savings across the country.
Research predicts that even with aggressive and coordinated action, the impacts of hurricanes and other storms are likely to worsen (especially for already disadvantaged communities), as will the costs associated with their clean up.
The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Department of Labor, and Department of Health and Human Services host clearinghouses for models, evidence, and interventions, which NIST could look to inform the goals, design, and structure of a climate model clearinghouse.

Sources:

Federation of American Scientists (FAS)
Arizona State Law Journal (2023)
President's Council of Advisors on Science and Technology
Open Environmental Data Project
Fair Tech Collective
Environmental Protection Agency
Department of Labor
Department of Health and Human Services
U.S. Chamber of Commerce