China Sets Emissions Target, But Analysts Disappointed with Ambition

Strategic Insights -

China's president Xi Jinping told the United Nations that his country is setting a target to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from their peak, but analysts say the goal is not ambitious enough to meet the 1.5C global heating limit. Despite this, China's move is significant, as it is the world's biggest emitter, accounting for 29% of global emissions.

Key Takeaways:

  • China's new target is for a 7% to 10% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, but analysts say it is not enough to meet the 1.5C global heating limit.
  • China's emissions are about 29% of the global total, more than twice that of the United States, the world's second biggest emitter.
  • China's move is significant, as it is the biggest manufacturer and deployer of technologies to slow global heating, from wind turbines and solar panels to electric vehicles and batteries.
  • China's president Xi Jinping said the country aims to increase solar and wind capacity by six times the levels in 2020 to reach 3,600 gigawatts by 2035, but analysts say this target will easily be achieved.
  • Australia's largest LNG customer is China, and declining demand for fossil fuels in China will impact Australia's fossil fuel industry.
  • China has already installed about three-quarters of all the solar and wind power on the planet, and has been adding between 300GW and 400GW of solar and wind a year for the past two years.
  • Australia is a major exporter of fossil fuels to China, accounting for about 34% to 35% of LNG exports and about 11% to 12% of coal exports.

Statistics:

  • China's emissions are about 29% of the global total (Source: Global Carbon Initiative).
  • China's goal is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 7% to 10% from their peak by 2035 (Source: Xi Jinping's address to the United Nations).
  • China aims to increase solar and wind capacity by six times the levels in 2020 to reach 3,600 gigawatts by 2035 (Source: Xi Jinping's address to the United Nations).
  • China has installed about three-quarters of all the solar and wind power on the planet (Source: Bill Hare, founder of Climate Analytics).
  • Australia's largest LNG customer is China, with about 34% to 35% of LNG exports going to China (Source: Josh Runciman, Australian gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis).
  • Australia accounts for about 11% to 12% of China's coal exports (Source: Josh Runciman, Australian gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis).

Sources:

  • Xi Jinping's address to the United Nations.
  • Global Carbon Initiative.
  • Bill Hare, founder of Climate Analytics.
  • Josh Runciman, Australian gas analyst at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
  • Anthony Albanese, Australian Prime Minister.
  • Dr Wesley Morgan, Climate Council councillor and researcher at the institute for climate risk and response at the University of New South Wales.
  • Dr Jorrit Gosens, expert on China's energy transition at the Australian National University.