China's Climate Ambition: A Turning Point for Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions?

Strategic Insights -

Chinese President Xi Jinping's pledge to cut greenhouse-gas emissions by 7 per cent to 10 per cent in the next decade, while a step towards climate leadership, has been met with mixed reactions. The move comes as Super Typhoon Ragasa, the strongest storm on Earth so far this year, forced the evacuation of over a million people in southern China, highlighting the growing frequency and intensity of weather disasters. China's climate efforts have historically been in its self-interest, and its booming renewable sector has positioned the country to take a leading role in the global transition to clean energy.

Key Takeaways:

  • China's pledge to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions by 7 per cent to 10 per cent in the next decade is its first detailed target for emissions reduction.
  • The country has a record of "underpromising and overdelivering" when it comes to climate efforts, according to Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at campaign group 350.org.
  • China's leaders have long argued that the country should have more leeway in mitigation efforts due to its developing status, but this is changing, with Climate Envoy Liu Zhenmin acknowledging that China is no longer a developing country.
  • Chinese officials are aware of the risks posed by climate change, not only to citizens but also to the political stability of the Communist Party.
  • China dominates the green tech sector, with Chinese companies pledging at least US$227-billion across green manufacturing projects, more in equivalent dollars than the U.S. spent on the Marshall Plan.
  • China's overseas investments in clean technology are building physical factories, ports, and facilities that will generate jobs and investments for decades to come, cementing host countries' commitment to clean technology.

Statistics:

  • 7-10 per cent: the reduction in greenhouse-gas emissions that China has pledge to achieve in the next decade.
  • 22 million: the number of people living in Beijing, which is vulnerable to extreme heat and drought.
  • 1 per cent: the reduction in global emissions attributed to exports of Chinese solar panels, EVs, and batteries, according to research by Carbon Brief.
  • US$227-billion: the amount pledged by Chinese companies across green manufacturing projects, more in equivalent dollars than the U.S. spent on the Marshall Plan.
  • 1: the number of years since Typhoons have been growing in frequency and intensity as a result of warming waters, with 2023 being the strongest storm on Earth so far this year.

Sources:

  • Xi Jinping's speech at the United Nations environmental summit, as reported in the New York Times, October 11, 2023.
  • Andreas Sieber, associate director of policy and campaigns at campaign group 350.org, as quoted in the article.
  • Climate Envoy Liu Zhenmin's statement to a state-run magazine, as reported in the article.
  • Research by Carbon Brief, as cited in the article.
  • A new report by the Net Zero Industrial Policy Lab at Johns Hopkins, as cited in the article.