China's Exports Surge Amid Trade Truce with US

Strategic Insights -

China's exports jumped 7.2% in July from a year earlier, with imports growing at the fastest pace in a year, as businesses took advantage of a temporary truce in the trade war with the US. However, analysts note that the improvement was also due to a low base for comparison. Exports to the US sank nearly 22% year-on-year, while imports from America fell almost 19%. Yet, Chinese businesses diverted sales to Africa and Southeast Asia, where exports surged at double-digit rates.

Key Takeaways:

  • China's exports surged 7.2% in July from a year earlier, while imports grew at the fastest pace in a year.
  • Exports to the US sank nearly 22% year-on-year, while imports from America fell almost 19%.
  • China's global trade surplus for 2025 rose to $683.5 billion by the end of July, nearly a third higher than the surplus for the same period last year.
  • The data showed that China's surplus in July was $98.2 billion, while its exports to the US were $23.7 billion more than its imports of U.S. goods.
  • U.S. imports from China are subject to tariffs of at least 30%, with some products facing much higher import duties.
  • Chinese businesses diverted sales to Africa and Southeast Asia, where exports surged at double-digit rates.
  • The Trump administration has raised tariffs on imports from countries other than China that it suspects of being "transshipped" via other countries.
  • Exports of vehicles, fertilizer, ships, and auto parts also saw strong growth.
  • China's exports of rare earths, vital for making high-tech products, fell 17.6% in July, compared with a nearly 50% fall the month before.

Statistics:

  • 7.2%: Net increase in China's exports in July from a year earlier.
  • $683.5 billion: China's global trade surplus for 2025, nearly a third higher than the surplus for the same period last year.
  • $98.2 billion: China's trade surplus in July.
  • $23.7 billion: Difference between China's exports to the US and its imports of U.S. goods.
  • 30%: Minimum tariff rate on U.S. imports from China.
  • 20%: New tariff rate on Vietnam's exports to the U.S.
  • 40%: New tariff rate on transshipped goods.

Sources:

  • Bloomberg
  • Reuters
  • Capital Economics