China's Grain Consumption Expected to Peak by 2030: Report

Strategic Insights -

China's grain consumption is expected to peak during the 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030, with steady declines in staple food intake, continued growth in feed grain demand, and robust industrial use, experts said in an analysis of the Rural Development Report (2025). The report, led by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, offers a comprehensive outlook on China's agricultural transformation and rural policy agenda through 2030. By the end of 2030, China's grain output is forecast to reach 752.4 million metric tons, with cereal production hitting 686.1 million tons and the grain self-sufficiency rate remaining above 95 percent.

Key Takeaways:

  • The 15th Five-Year Plan period from 2026 to 2030 is expected to witness a peak in China's grain consumption, with staple food intake declining steadily.
  • Feed grain demand is expected to continue growing, while industrial use of grain is likely to remain robust.
  • By 2030, China's grain output is forecast to reach 752.4 million metric tons, with cereal production hitting 686.1 million tons.
  • The grain self-sufficiency rate is projected to remain above 95 percent, ensuring national food security.
  • The rural population aged 60 and above is projected to account for 28.2 percent of the total, or nearly 394 million people by 2030.
  • The share of employment in agriculture is expected to decline from more than 22 percent in 2024 to 19.5 percent by 2030.
  • Rural per capita disposable income is expected to reach 34,500 yuan, or about $4,809, by 2030, while urban incomes are projected to average 70,566 yuan, narrowing the urban-rural income ratio to 2.05.

Statistics:

  • China's grain output is forecast to reach 752.4 million metric tons by 2030.
  • Cereal production is expected to hit 686.1 million tons by 2030.
  • The grain self-sufficiency rate is projected to remain above 95 percent by 2030.
  • The rural population aged 60 and above is projected to account for 28.2 percent of the total, or nearly 394 million people by 2030.
  • The share of employment in agriculture is expected to decline from more than 22 percent in 2024 to 19.5 percent by 2030.
  • Rural per capita disposable income is expected to reach 34,500 yuan, or about $4,809, by 2030.
  • Urban incomes are projected to average 70,566 yuan by 2030.

Sources:

  • Rural Development Report (2025)
  • Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
  • Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs
  • Yu Fawen, researcher at the Rural Development Institute of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences
  • Chen Bangxun, head of the department of development and planning at the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs