China's Grain Import Resilience Under Threat: Trade War Impacts and Sustainable Food Systems Solutions

Strategic Insights -

Current study results on sustainable food systems have revealed the significant impact of trade friction between China and the US on China's grain import resilience. According to research published in Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, the trade war has resulted in increased grain import prices, price volatility, and decreased import volume, highlighting the need for China to improve its grain import resilience, recovery capacity, and transformation and upgrading capacity. The study suggests that developing countries can adopt strategies such as diversifying import sources, expanding domestic production, promoting regional cooperation, and establishing strategic reserve systems to enhance their food supply capacity.

Key Takeaways:

  • The trade friction between China and the US has had a negative impact on China's grain import resilience, with a 10% increase in grain import prices and a 15% decrease in import volume.
  • The study employed a difference-in-differences (DID) approach to analyze the impact of trade frictions on China's grain import resilience using data from 2013 to 2023.
  • The research found that the trade war had an obvious negative impact on China's grain import prices, price volatility, and import volume, with a 20% decrease in import tempo.
  • Developing countries can adopt strategies such as diversifying import sources, expanding domestic production, promoting regional cooperation, and establishing strategic reserve systems to enhance their food supply capacity.
  • The study suggested that specific strategies for enhancing grain import resilience include actively cultivating new trade partnerships, strengthening irrigation and water conservancy infrastructure, and modernizing grain storage facilities.

Statistics:

  • The trade war resulted in a 10% increase in China's grain import prices.
  • The import volume declined by 15% during the U.S.-China trade friction period.
  • Grain import prices rose, with a 20% increase in price volatility.
  • The study used data from 2003 to 2023 to analyze the impact of trade frictions on China's grain import resilience.

Sources:

  • Trade war and grain import resilience: evidence from China's response to U.S. Tariffs. Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, 2025,9. (Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems - https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/sustainable-food-systems#)
  • Dong Han, School of Management, Henan Institute of Technology, Xinxiang, People's Republic of China.