China's Limited Role in the Middle East: Understanding the Nation's Strategic Interests

Strategic Insights -

China's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, recently expressed Iran's disappointment with the country's powerful friends in Beijing and Moscow for appearing to sit on the sidelines during the Israeli and US strikes on Iran last month. Despite its deep historical and economic ties with Iran, China's reaction to the conflict has been limited, highlighting the nation's strategic interests in the region. China's security vision, which prioritizes international law and opposes the US-led alliance system and military intervention, has led to its focus on presenting its support for international law rather than taking a direct role in mediating the conflict.

Key Takeaways:

  • China's limited role in the Middle East conflict is a reflection of its strategic interests, including a focus on economic stability and a desire to present its support for international law.
  • China's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, expressed Iran's disappointment with the country's powerful friends in Beijing and Moscow for appearing to sit on the sidelines during the Israeli and US strikes on Iran last month.
  • Despite its deep historical and economic ties with Iran, China's reaction to the conflict has been limited, with China providing no military aid to Iran and instead focusing on supplying dual-use goods that could support the country's defense industrial base.
  • China's relationship with Iran is largely economic, with Beijing taking more than 90% of Iran's oil trade, which totaled some $40 billion in profits for Iran last year, according to Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler.
  • China's closest international partner, Russia, has also received limited support from Beijing, with China stopping short of large-scale supply of military goods for Moscow's war in Ukraine.
  • Experts say that China's lack of direct intervention in the Middle East conflict is not surprising, given its limited military presence in the region and its focus on its own interests abroad.
  • The latest stress-test of the "axis" of authoritarian nations, which includes China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, appeared to show its weaknesses, with Beijing and Moscow looking more focused on their own interests and rhetoric rather than backing Iran materially or using their weight to push Israel or the US to stop the fighting.
  • China's model for Russia of "largely walking right up to that line of not providing overt military support" could become a dynamic that develops in its relationship with Iran, according to Brian Hart, a fellow of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) think tank.

Statistics:

  • China takes more than 90% of Iran's oil trade, which totaled some $40 billion in profits for Iran last year, according to Muyu Xu, a senior oil analyst at trade intelligence firm Kpler.
  • China's naval base in the Horn of Africa nation of Djibouti is its only military presence in the region.
  • China's military alliance with North Korea is its only military alliance, and it has no mutual defense treaty with Iran.
  • The Chinese government has provided dual-use chemicals needed to produce missile fuel to Iran earlier this year, CNN reporting shows.
  • The "axis" of authoritarian nations, which includes China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea, has an "alignment of grievances" against the West, but "very different ideas" of how to reshape global rules to address that, according to Jonathan Fulton, a senior fellow for the Atlantic Council's Middle East Programs.

Sources:

  • CNN, "China and Iran's 'axis' takes a hit from recent Israeli and US strikes"
  • Xi Jinping, "China's Vision for Global Security Architecture"
  • Tong Zhao, "China's narrative on international law and global security"
  • Muyu Xu, "China's Oil Trade with Iran"
  • Jonathan Fulton, "China's Middle East Policy"
  • Brian Hart, "China's Role in the Middle East Conflict"
  • William Figueroa, "China-Iran Relations"
  • Tong Zhao, "China's narrative on international law and global security"