China's Threat to the International Order: Former Prime Minister Warns Western Democracies

Strategic Insights -

Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison has told a congressional committee in the US that China hopes Western democracies "go to sleep on the threat" it poses to the international order. Morrison testified that China has altered its diplomatic tactics, adopting a more inductive engagement approach, but its objectives remain unchanged: to isolate US influence in the Indo-Pacific and weaken efforts to counter Beijing's potential security threat.

Morrison argued that Australia should boost its defence spending to the 3.5% of GDP demanded by the US, citing the changing world order and China's illiberal objectives. He accused the current Labor government of scrimping on defence spending to pay for the Aukus submarine deal, which will cost $358bn by the 2050s. Morrison suggested that Australia should raise its defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035.

Morrison also warned that Western countries are "kidding themselves" if they think dialogue will change Beijing's pursuit of its objectives. He emphasized the need for Western nations to resist Chinese attempts to interfere in politics and curb free speech. The former Prime Minister cited polling by the Lowy Institute, saying that "for the first time in quite a number of years, there is a greater value on the economic partnership with China than concerns about the security threat."

Key Takeaways:

  • Morrison testified that China hopes Western democracies "go to sleep on the threat" it poses to the international order.
  • China has altered its diplomatic tactics, adopting a more inductive engagement approach, but its objectives remain unchanged.
  • Morrison argued that Australia should boost its defence spending to 3.5% of GDP demanded by the US.
  • The current Labor government is accused of scrimping on defence spending to pay for the Aukus submarine deal, which will cost $358bn by the 2050s.
  • Morrison suggested that Australia should raise its defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035.
  • Morrison warned that Western countries are "kidding themselves" if they think dialogue will change Beijing's pursuit of its objectives.
  • The former Prime Minister cited polling by the Lowy Institute, saying that concerns about the security threat are waning in favor of economic benefits.
  • Morrison emphasized the need for Western nations to resist Chinese attempts to interfere in politics and curb free speech.

Statistics:

  • China's Aukus submarine deal will cost $358bn by the 2050s.
  • Australia's current defence spending is at around 2% of GDP, with forecasts to lift that to 2.3% by 2033.
  • Morrison suggested that Australia should raise its defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030 and 3.5% by 2035.
  • The US has requested that Australia boost its defence spending to 3.5% of GDP.
  • China has imposed trade sanctions on beef, wine, and barley on Australia after it led calls for an inquiry into the origins of Covid-19.

Sources:

  • Former Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison's testimony to the House select committee on China in Washington.
  • Rahm Emanuel's comments, as cited in the article, regarding China's trade sanctions on beef, wine, and barley.
  • Polling by the Lowy Institute, as cited by Morrison, regarding concerns about the security threat versus economic benefits.