Climate Change and Conflict: A Growing Link

Strategic Insights -

As the global climate summit, COP21, gears up in Paris next week, Prince Charles and US Secretary of State John Kerry are among those who believe there is a direct link between climate change and conflict. Citing the Syrian conflict as a case in point, Prince Charles warns that not addressing climate change will lead to increased conflict over scarce resources and social unrest. Kerry, too, has made the connection, stating that Syria's drought on record contributed to the country's civil war. Scientific studies, including a 2014 study in the journal Weather, Climate and Society, have also found a direct link between climate change and the deterioration of Syria's economic conditions.

Key Takeaways:

  • Prince Charles believes climate change is directly linked to conflict, with Syria being a "classic case of not dealing with the problem."
  • US Secretary of State John Kerry has also made the connection, stating that Syria's drought on record contributed to the country's civil war.
  • A 2014 study published in the journal Weather, Climate and Society found that "water and climatic conditions have played a direct role in the deterioration of Syria's economic conditions."
  • A study published this year found that the multiyear drought that helped drive the conflict was made "two to three times more likely" by man-made global warming.
  • The Middle East is expected to trend hotter and drier, making severe, multiyear droughts such as what occurred in Syria more likely.
  • The Syrian drought started in 2006 and led to a 50% and 66% decrease in wheat and barley yields, respectively, by 2009.
  • Over 1 million Syrians were forced into food insecurity by 2011, and over 1.5 million people migrated to cities, where many deaths occurred.
  • While there is evidence to support the climate-violence link, not everyone agrees that Syria's drought contributed to the civil war.
  • Other droughts occurred in neighboring countries such as Turkey and Iran, which did not see the same mass migrations and social unrest.
  • Researchers stress that war often emerges from many factors and that acknowledging the complexity of the issue is essential.

Statistics:

  • The Syrian drought was the worst on record and started in 2006.
  • By 2009, wheat and barley yields decreased by 50% and 66%, respectively.
  • Over 1 million Syrians were forced into food insecurity by 2011.
  • Over 1.5 million people migrated to cities, including Aleppo, Damascus, and Homs, where many deaths occurred.
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts the Middle East will become hotter and drier, making severe droughts more likely.
  • A study published this year found that man-made global warming made the multiyear drought "two to three times more likely."

Sources:

  • Sky News interview with Prince Charles
  • Speech by US Secretary of State John Kerry at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia
  • Study published in the journal Weather, Climate and Society in 2014
  • Study published this year by researchers at the University of California, Santa Barbara, and Columbia University
  • Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change