Climate Change and Groundwater Depletion: A Regional Crisis Unfolds

Strategic Insights -

Climate change is leading to droughts, soil salinization, and the loss of agricultural land across the Middle East and North Africa. Communities in the region are increasingly relying on groundwater for irrigation, resulting in the collapse of underground cavities and the formation of massive sinkholes. According to researchers, the region's fragile soil structure, combined with the lack of rainfall, is exacerbating the situation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region is among the most affected by climate change, with extremely high water stress in countries such as Lebanon, Iran, and Jordan.
  • Since the 1960s, Iran's average temperature has risen by 2 degrees Celsius, rainfall has decreased by 20% over the last 20 years, and precipitation patterns have shifted.
  • Rainfall in Jordan is expected to decrease by 17% by the middle of the century and by 21% by its end.
  • The 2020-2021 rainfall season in Iraq was recorded as the second driest period in the last 40 years, leading to a 29% decrease in water flow in the Tigris river and a 73% decrease in the Euphrates river.
  • Drought and soil salinization have resulted in the loss of 25,000 hectares of agricultural land each year.
  • 70% of Iraq's farmland is at risk of complete degradation due to climate change.
  • Temperatures in Trkiye are expected to rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2040, and regional rainfall in the country's water sources is predicted to decrease by up to 200 millimeters.
  • In Syria, droughts that used to occur once every 250 years are expected to become a once-in-10-years event if temperatures rise by 1.2 degrees Celsius.

Notable Statistics:

  • The average annual temperature has increased by 0.11 degrees Celsius every decade in Lebanon.
  • The average monthly rainfall has decreased by 11 millimeters since 1950 in Lebanon.
  • Rainfall in Jordan is expected to decrease by 17% by the middle of the century and by 21% by its end.
  • The 2020-2021 rainfall season in Iraq was recorded as the second driest period in the last 40 years, leading to a 29% decrease in water flow in the Tigris river and a 73% decrease in the Euphrates river.
  • Drought and soil salinization have resulted in the loss of 25,000 hectares of agricultural land each year.
  • 70% of Iraq's farmland is at risk of complete degradation due to climate change.
  • Temperatures in Trkiye are expected to rise by 1 to 2 degrees Celsius by 2040.

Sources:

  • Anadolu correspondent in collaboration with the environment-focused Blue Peace Middle East (BPME) organization
  • Fetullah Arik, Director of the Sinkhole Application and Research Centre at Konya Technical University
  • Nizar Abu Jaber, a faculty member of the Geology Department at the German Jordanian University
  • Farmer Hasan Koroglu and Farmer Muhammed Lutfi Gulbahar