Climate Change Research Reveals Decreases in Low Flows for Most Turkish Stations

Strategic Insights -

Research conducted in Turkey, supported by Turkiye Bilimsel ve Teknolojik Arastirma Kurumu (TUBITAK), provides valuable insights into the impact of climate change on low flows in the country. The study, which employed stationary and non-stationary models, revealed that decreases in low flows are expected for most Turkish stations, except for those in the upper Euphrates basin.

Key Takeaways:

  • The research investigated 80 measuring stations in Turkey, analyzing low flow data under climate change using both stationary and non-stationary models.
  • The study found that stationary models were more successful at 7 stations, while non-stationary models were more successful at 73 stations, highlighting the importance of non-stationary models in analyzing low flow data.
  • The results showed that decreases in low flows are expected for most Turkish stations, except for those in the upper Euphrates basin, with the best performing models incorporating annual precipitation as covariates.
  • The research also found that successful results were obtained when Western Mediterranean Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation indices were used as explanatory variables.
  • The study investigated 20 and 50-year return levels by fitting the non-stationary frequency distribution models for low flows over historical and projection periods under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios.

Statistics:

  • 80 measuring stations were investigated in Turkey.
  • 7 stations showed more success with stationary models, while 73 stations showed more success with non-stationary models.
  • The study found that decreases in low flows are expected for 73 stations.
  • The best performing models incorporated annual precipitation as covariates.
  • The research used 31 explanatory variables, consisting of time, precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric oscillation indices.
  • The study analyzed low flow data under SPL2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios.

Sources:

  • Non-stationary Low Flow Frequency Analysis Under Climate Change. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2024;155(8):7479-7497. (Springer - www.springer.com; Theoretical and Applied Climatology - www.springerlink.com/content/0177-798x/)
  • NewsRx. New Climate Change Findings Has Been Reported by Investigators at Erzurum Technical University (Non-stationary Low Flow Frequency Analysis Under Climate Change). Global Warming Focus. October 20, 2025; p 111.