Climate Change Threatens Food Security in Sub-Saharan Africa

Strategic Insights -

The rising frequency of extreme climate events and global warming pose significant threats to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa. A new report by the Chinese Academy of Sciences examines the impact of climate change on four key crops: maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans. The research finds that maize yields are projected to decline, while rice and wheat yields are expected to increase due to the CO2 fertilization effect. Soybean yields, however, are projected to remain consistent but with a modest decline in comparison with past norms.

Key Takeaways:

  • Maize yields in Sub-Saharan Africa are projected to decline by 20-30% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, with the worst declines forecasted in eastern South Africa and Zambia.
  • Rice yields are expected to increase by 10-20% in West Africa due to the CO2 fertilization effect, while wheat yields are projected to increase by 15-25% in South Africa and Nigeria.
  • Soybean yields are projected to remain consistent overall but with a modest decline of 5-10% in comparison with past norms.
  • The research used a random forest model to estimate spatial and temporal yield trends based on climate variables, land-use patterns, and irrigation ratios.
  • The study examined the differential impacts of climate change on various crop types, taking into account their physiological characteristics and responses to changing environmental conditions.
  • The research employed three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5) and five global climate models (GCMs): BCC-CSM2-MR, CanESM5, IPSL-CM6A-LR, GFDL-ESM4, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR.
  • The research concludes that climate change poses a significant threat to food security in Sub-Saharan Africa, with maize, rice, and wheat projected to experience varying degrees of impact.

Statistics:

  • Maize yields are projected to decline by 20-30% under the SSP5-8.5 scenario.
  • Rice yields are expected to increase by 10-20% in West Africa due to the CO2 fertilization effect.
  • Wheat yields are projected to increase by 15-25% in South Africa and Nigeria.
  • Soybean yields are projected to remain consistent overall but with a modest decline of 5-10% in comparison with past norms.
  • The study analyzed four key crops: maize, rice, wheat, and soybeans.
  • The research used a random forest model to estimate spatial and temporal yield trends based on climate variables, land-use patterns, and irrigation ratios.

Sources:

  • Research on the impact of climate change on food security in Africa. Scientific Reports, 2025,15(1):1-16. (Scientific Reports - http://www.nature.com/srep/index.html).
  • Chinese Academy of Sciences. Data from Chinese Academy of Sciences Broaden Understanding of Climate Change (Research on the impact of climate change on food security in Africa). Global Warming Focus. September 15, 2025; p 14.