Climate Change Threatens Global Food Security, Study Reveals

Strategic Insights -

Climate change poses a significant threat to global food security, particularly in regions reliant on crops like summer maize. Research from Northwest Agriculture and Forestry University in Shaanxi, People's Republic of China, highlights the urgent need to understand and predict the impacts of climate change on crop yield and water productivity. A two-stage evaluation process was employed to select four global climate models, which were then used to simulate summer maize yield and water productivity in the Weihe River Basin from 1982 to 2099.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that rising temperatures are the dominant factor influencing yield and water productivity changes across 82% of the basin, on average.
  • By 2099, the maximum temperature is expected to rise by an average of 2.5°C, the minimum temperature by 2.6°C, and rainfall by 71 mm.
  • The southeastern region of the Weihe River Basin is expected to experience yield and water productivity reductions of up to 40% under rainfed conditions.
  • In contrast, solar radiation is projected to decrease in more areas.
  • The study suggests that farmers and policymakers can use this research to specify appropriate management measures for the Weihe River Basin to adapt to climate change.

Statistics:

  • Average weighted fusion method vs. least squares weighted fusion method: 82% of the basin showed a more significant impact of the latter method on future solar radiation data fusion.
  • Summer maize yield and water productivity in the Weihe River Basin from 1982 to 2099: the study simulated using the distributed DSSAT-CERES-Maize model.
  • Key meteorological factors influencing spatial variations in yield and water productivity: machine learning quantified the relative importance of these factors.
  • Projected changes in temperature, rainfall, and solar radiation by 2099: maximum temperature rise 2.5°C, rainfall increase 71 mm, and solar radiation decrease.
  • Shift in high-yield areas: from historically wetter to drier areas, migrating from the southeastern to the northwestern parts of the Weihe River Basin.
  • Yield and water productivity reduction in the southeastern region: up to 40% under rainfed conditions.
  • Average temperature increase across the basin by 2099: 2.5°C and 2.6°C for maximum and minimum temperatures, respectively.

Sources:

  • "Climate change promotes shifts of summer maize yield and water productivity in the Weihe River Basin: A regionalization study based on a distributed crop model" (Agricultural Water Management, 2025, 314():109500)