Climate Change Threatens Grain Production in East Asia, Study Reveals

Strategic Insights -

A new report from researchers at Beijing Normal University has found that climate change poses a significant threat to grain production in East Asia. The study, published in the journal Foods, used an improved economy-climate model to assess the impacts of climate variables and climate change on rice, wheat, and maize total production. The research found that dry-wet conditions exhibit a significant roughly inverted U-shaped relationship with grain production in some crop areas, with optimal production levels observed near an SPEI of zero.

Key Takeaways:

  • Climate change threatens grain production in East Asia, with impacts varying by crop and region.
  • Dry-wet conditions exhibit a significant roughly inverted U-shaped relationship with grain production in some crop areas.
  • Effective accumulated temperature positively affects wheat production in most regions, while higher effective accumulative temperatures reduce production in warm southern areas.
  • Future climate change in 2021-2050 will likely increase rice production in northern China but decrease it in the south.
  • Impacts on wheat will be modestly negative, accounting for about 10% of future total production.
  • Impacts in Japan and Korea will be minimal, with absolute values of IRCC not exceeding 2.5% across all scenarios.
  • The Impact Ratio of Climate Change (IRCC) is a new metric reflecting the extent of future climate change impact, introduced in this study.
  • The research introduces a new metric reflecting extent of future climate change impact, the Impact Ratio of Climate Change (IRCC).

Statistics:

  • 10%: the percentage of future total wheat production accounted for by impacts of climate change.
  • 2.5%: the absolute values of IRCC not exceeding in Japan and Korea across all scenarios.
  • 2021-2050: the time period considered for the climate change impact projections.
  • 0: the SPEI value at which optimal production is observed.

Sources:

  • Impacts of Climate Change on Grain Production in China, Japan, and South Korea Based on an Improved Economy-Climate Model. Foods, 2025,14(19):3301. (Foods - http://www.mdpi.com/journal/foods)
  • Haofeng Jin, Institute of Disaster Risk Science, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, People's Republic of China
  • Jieming Chou, Yaqi Wang, Hongze Pei, Yuan Xu, additional authors for this research