Clinton Administration's Iraq Policy in Shambles: A Credibility Crisis

Strategic Insights -

The Clinton administration's efforts to handle Iraq's noncompliance with U.N. weapons inspections have been marred by reports of Secretary of State Madeleine Albright secretly discouraging surprise visits by inspectors, which is seen as a blow to U.S. credibility and the prospects of Saddam Hussein facing significant consequences for his actions. Iraq's suspension of inspections has been deemed "totally unacceptable" by the U.N. Security Council, yet the administration has failed to fully utilize the threat of military action to spur cooperation. Meanwhile, public support for military action is at an all-time low, and Saddam has made diplomatic overtures to Russia, France, and China, gaining powerful advocates on the U.N. Security Council.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Clinton administration's policy on Iraq is in disarray, with Secretary of State Madeleine Albright reportedly discouraging U.N. inspectors from making surprise visits to suspected weapons sites in Iraq.
  • Iraq's suspension of U.N. weapons inspections is deemed "totally unacceptable" by the U.N. Security Council, but the administration has failed to leverage the threat of military action to prompt compliance.
  • The administration's failure to maintain a robust military presence in the region, coupled with its lack of diplomatic efforts, has allowed the once-strong anti-Iraq coalition to fray.
  • Public support for military action against Iraq is at an all-time low, making it even more difficult for the administration to muster international support for any future actions.
  • Saddam Hussein has successfully courted support from Russia, France, and China, potentially limiting the U.N. Security Council's ability to take decisive action.
  • The administration's failure to recognize the importance of maintaining a strong military presence in the region has allowed Iraq to gain a strategic advantage.
  • The author, James H. Anderson, a defense and national security analyst at The Heritage Foundation, favors a comprehensive approach that melds political, economic, and military action to pressure Saddam Hussein into compliance.
  • The author suggests that the United States should extend the military "no-fly zone" over the entire country, recognize a provisional government in northern Iraq, and intensify covert measures to pressure Saddam.
  • The author also advises coordinating these actions with Iraq's neighbors rather than relying solely on the U.N. Security Council.

Statistics:

  • 2 aircraft carriers and 30,000 troops were stationed in the region during the February crisis, whereas today the US has 1 aircraft carrier and 19,000 troops.
  • $100 billion in lost oil revenue that Iraq has sacrificed over the past 8 years.
  • The Iraqi leadership has 8 years of evidence that sanctions alone will not prompt "gentlemanly behavior" from Iraq.
  • The U.N. Security Council has declared Iraq's latest suspension of U.N. weapons inspections "totally unacceptable".

Sources:

  • James H. Anderson, defense and national security analyst at The Heritage Foundation (www.heritage.org)
  • U.N. Security Council Resolution 1154
  • Knight Ridder/Tribune News Service subscribers