Coalition's Support Plummets to Near-Record Low Ahead of 48th Parliament

Strategic Insights -

Sussan Ley is facing a daunting task to rebuild the shattered Liberal Party as support for the Coalition has plummeted to a near-record low, according to the first post-federal election opinion poll conducted by Resolve. Despite the dire situation, Prime Minister Anthony Albanese is yet to experience a surge in support, with voters believing Labor is better equipped to handle issues such as the economy and national security.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Coalition's primary vote has fallen to 29%, its lowest level since early 2023, with most of the drop going to One Nation.
  • Labor's primary vote has increased marginally to 35%, while its two-party preferred lead over the Coalition has widened to 56-44.
  • Opposition Leader Sussan Ley has the highest likeability rating among MPs and party leaders, with a net positive 11, while Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's net likeability is positive 4.
  • Ley's performance has been rated as either good or very good by 38% of respondents, while 29% rated it as poor or very poor, with 33% undecided.
  • Albanese's performance has been rated as either good or very good by 45% of respondents, while 42% rated it as poor or very poor.
  • Albanese holds a 15-point lead over Ley as preferred prime minister, a point down on his lead over Peter Dutton in the last pre-election Resolve poll.
  • Labor has a 10-point lead over the Coalition on who is best for the nation, an 18-point lead on which party has a united team, a 16-point lead on which party is communicating well, and a 14-point lead on offering strong leadership.

Statistics:

  • 31.8% (Coalition's primary vote at the 2022 election)
  • 29% (Coalition's primary vote according to the Resolve post-election poll)
  • 35% (Labor's primary vote according to the Resolve post-election poll)
  • 56-44 (Labor's two-party preferred lead over the Coalition according to the Resolve post-election poll)
  • 94 (number of seats held by the Labor Party in the House of Representatives)
  • 40% (Albanese's support as preferred prime minister)
  • 25% (Ley's support as preferred prime minister)

Sources:

  • Resolve Strategic's director, Jim Reed
  • The May 3 election
  • The Resolve Political Monitor