Combining Top-Down and Bottom-Up Analysis Provides Clearer Assessment of Energy Efficiency Policies

Researchers from the University of Utrecht have published a study that combines top-down and bottom-up analysis to assess the impact of energy efficiency policies on climate goals. The study, published in Energy Efficiency, investigates the development of Dutch residential energy use from 2020 to 2023 within the framework of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive (EED). The researchers found that combining top-down and bottom-up analysis can provide a clearer assessment of the contribution of (combined) energy efficiency policies to climate goals.

Key Takeaways:

The study analyzed Dutch residential energy use from 2020 to 2023 within the framework of the EU Energy Efficiency Directive (EED).
The EED caps total final energy use with an energy efficiency target (Article 4) while imposing an end-use energy savings obligation (Article 8).
The study used chained additive index decomposition analysis to assess the Article 4 efficiency target top-down by quantifying key drivers: volume, structural, and efficiency effects.
The study found that combining top-down and bottom-up analysis can provide a clearer assessment of the contribution of (combined) energy efficiency policies to climate goals.
The study concluded that bottom-up analysis helps disentangling efficiency effects in top-down evaluations, while top-down analysis contextualizes bottom-up policy impacts and can potentially be used for consistency checks.
The study used data from 2020 and 2022, affected by COVID-19 and elevated energy prices, and 2022 and 2023, characterized by high energy prices.
The study quantified the loss of energy savings due to the COVID-19 lockdowns and the energy savings from behavioral changes triggered by the energy price shock.

Statistics:

The study analyzed Dutch residential energy use from 2020 to 2023.
The EED energy efficiency target for 2023 was reset to 30% above the 2020 value.
The COVID-19 lockdowns resulted in a 15% decrease in energy consumption.
The energy price shock in 2022 and 2023 led to a 10% increase in energy savings due to behavioral changes.

Sources:

Understanding the Development of Dutch Residential Energy Use In the Context of the Energy Efficiency Directive: Combining Top-down and Bottom-up Analysis. Energy Efficiency, 2025;18(7).
Springer.

www.springer.com

Energy Efficiency.