Commodity Prices to Hit Six-Year Low in 2026 as Oil Glut Expands Inflationary Pressures Ease

Global commodity prices are projected to fall to their lowest level in six years in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline, according to the World Bank Group's latest Commodity Markets Outlook. The forecast is driven by weak global economic growth, a growing oil surplus, and persistent policy uncertainty. Despite the recent declines, however, commodity prices remain above pre-pandemic levels, with prices in 2025 and 2026 projected to be 23% and 14% higher, respectively, than in 2019.

Key Takeaways:

Global commodity prices are projected to fall by 7% in both 2025 and 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of decline.
The global oil glut has expanded significantly in 2025 and is expected to rise next year to 65% above the most recent high, in 2020.
Energy prices are forecast to fall by 12% in 2025 and a further 10% in 2026, with Brent crude oil prices expected to fall from an average of $68 in 2025 to $60 in 2026, a five-year low.
Food prices are also easing, with declines of 6.1% projected in 2025 and 0.3% in 2026.
Soybean prices are falling in 2025 because of record production and trade tensions, but are expected to stabilize over the next two years.
Fertilizer prices are projected to surge 21% in 2025, reflecting higher input costs and trade restrictions, before easing 5% in 2026.
Precious metals have reached record highs in 2025, fueled by demand for safe-haven assets and continued central bank purchases, with the price of gold expected to increase by 42% in 2025 and a further 5% next year.
The report warns that commodity prices could fall more than expected during the forecast horizon if global growth remains sluggish amid prolonged trade tensions and policy uncertainty.

Statistics:

7%: forecast decline in global commodity prices in 2025 and 2026.
65%: expected increase in the global oil glut next year compared to the most recent high in 2020.
$68: average Brent crude oil price in 2025.
$60: forecast average Brent crude oil price in 2026.
12%: forecast decline in energy prices in 2025.
10%: forecast decline in energy prices in 2026.
6.1%: forecast decline in food prices in 2025.
0.3%: forecast decline in food prices in 2026.
21%: forecast surge in fertilizer prices in 2025.
5%: forecast decline in fertilizer prices in 2026.
42%: forecast increase in the price of gold in 2025.
5%: forecast increase in the price of gold in 2026.

Sources:

World Bank Group's Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2025
World Bank press release, October 28, 2025 (http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2025/10/28/commodity-markets-outlook-october-2025-press-release)