Conservative Leadership Contest: A Grassroots Perspective

Strategic Insights -

In the weeks leading up to the Conservative Party's leadership election, Labour's attention has shifted away from the internal power struggle towards more pressing issues, such as economic performance and EU membership. However, a closer examination of grassroots Conservative Party members' views reveals a more complex and nuanced landscape. Recent surveys conducted by Professors Paul Whiteley and Patrick Seyd at the University of Sheffield indicate that the party's grassroots are more divided on key leadership qualities than previously thought.

Key Takeaways:

  • Some 50 per cent of Conservative Party members believed John Major was not capable of being a strong leader in 1994, with only 38 per cent believing he possessed this quality, while 12 per cent were unsure.
  • John Major's 'feeling thermometer' score dropped from 80 in 1992 to 67 in 1994, indicating a decline in grassroots support.
  • Among the top four leadership contenders - Ken Clarke, Douglas Hurd, Michael Heseltine, and Michael Portillo - Clarke and Heseltine scored significantly lower than Portillo on the 'feeling thermometer' in 1994.
  • The most popular qualities in a leader cited by party members were 'strength of leadership' (34% in 1994), followed by 'being likeable as a person' (88% in 1994).
  • Portillo's supporters have distinct social and political characteristics, with significantly more coming from the right, activists, and Young Conservatives compared to Clarke or Heseltine supporters.
  • The Conservative Party's grassroots consultation exercise may give activists and ideologically-driven members a disproportionate voice, potentially benefiting Michael Portillo, who has greater support among active party members.

Statistics:

  • 50 per cent of Conservative Party members believed John Major was not capable of being a strong leader in 1994.
  • 38 per cent of Conservative Party members held John Major in high esteem for leadership qualities in 1994.
  • 12 per cent of Conservative Party members were unsure of John Major's ability to lead in 1994.
  • 61 per cent of Conservatives agreed or strongly agreed with resisting further integration of the European Community in 1994.
  • 71 per cent of Portillo supporters agreed with resisting further integration of the European Community in 1994.

Sources:

  • Whiteley, P. and Seyd, P. (1994), _True Blues: The Politics of Conservative Party Membership_, Oxford University Press.
  • [Follow-up survey by Professors Whiteley and Seyd, exact date unavailable]