Console Gaming Market Heats Up with Kinect and Move

Strategic Insights -

Console gaming is expected to reach new heights this holiday season as Microsoft's Kinect and Sony's Move motion controllers make their mark on the market. The prediction market survey by International Data Corporation (IDC) reveals that 2.5-3 million Kinect sensors will be sold in the fourth quarter of 2010, while 2-2.25 million Move motion controllers are expected to be sold by the end of the year.

According to the survey, the top-selling console games in the U.S. in the fourth quarter will be Call of Duty: Black Ops, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II, Medal of Honor, Halo: Reach, and Fallout: New Vegas. Disc sales for these games are expected to range from approximately 11.7 million for Call of Duty: Black Ops to 4.3 million for Fallout: New Vegas.

Key Takeaways:

  • Microsoft's Kinect will sell 2.5-3 million units in the fourth quarter of 2010, while Sony's Move motion controller will sell 2-2.25 million units.
  • The top-selling console games in the U.S. in the fourth quarter will be Call of Duty: Black Ops, Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II, Medal of Honor, Halo: Reach, and Fallout: New Vegas.
  • Disc sales for these games are expected to range from 11.7 million for Call of Duty: Black Ops to 4.3 million for Fallout: New Vegas.
  • The prediction market survey found that Nintendo's Wii MotionPlus controller has an installed base of over 10 million units, but the new interfaces from Sony and Microsoft will give many shoppers pause.
  • The survey was run in partnership with GamePro.com and gathered responses from over 750 console gamers throughout September.
  • The participants were offered incentives based on the accuracy of their predictions about total market outcomes, and they had the option of viewing aggregated to-date responses of previous participants before making their predictions.

Statistics:

  • 2.5-3 million Kinect sensors expected to be sold in the fourth quarter of 2010.
  • 2-2.25 million Move motion controllers expected to be sold by the end of the year.
  • Top-selling console games in the U.S. in the fourth quarter: Call of Duty: Black Ops (11.7 million disc sales), Star Wars: The Force Unleashed II (6.6 million disc sales), Medal of Honor (6.3 million disc sales), Halo: Reach (6.2 million disc sales), and Fallout: New Vegas (4.3 million disc sales).
  • Estimated consoles sales by platform in the fourth quarter of 2010: Xbox 360 (4.3 million), PlayStation 3 (3.2 million), and Nintendo Wii (2.8 million).

Sources:

  • International Data Corporation (IDC)
  • GamePro.com
  • GamePro magazine, an IDG publication
  • Microsoft
  • Sony
  • Activision
  • Treyarch
  • LucasArts
  • Electronic Arts
  • Microsoft/Bungie
  • Microsoft/Lionhead