Contrasting Views on Belgium's Economy in 2005: A Review of Retail Statistics and Economic Growth

Strategic Insights -

As official retail statistics for the third quarter of 2005 had yet to be released, a review of Belgium's economy published by businessreview.com in November 2005 suggested that consumption was declining. However, on December 21, 2005, Statistics Belgium released the most current official statistics on Belgium's retail sector, revealing a different picture. The statistics showed increases in various volume indicators, including total retail sales, which reached a high of 123 in October 2005, matching the year's high posted in June 2005.

Key Takeaways:

  • Total retail sales volume indicator reached 123 in October 2005, matching the year's high set in June 2005.
  • All volume indicators were at or near 2005 highs, except for the miscellaneous category.
  • The volume indicator for "household equipment" showed steadiness toward the end of the year, with the October index at 136.
  • New car registrations showed an upward trend during 2005, with both the value index and volume index increasing.
  • GDP growth for 2005 was predicted to be 1.4 percent, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasting 1.2 percent growth.
  • Inflation rate was predicted to be relatively tame, growing only 1.9 percent for 2005.
  • Unemployment was expected to climb slightly to 8 percent.
  • Consumption was expected to improve further in 2006, with GDP growth predicted to be 2 percent.
  • The high sales of "household equipment" in October 2005, nearly 10 percent increase from October 2004, was one of the positive signs emerging from the retail numbers.

Statistics:

  • Total retail sales volume indicator: 123 in October 2005 (matching the year's high set in June 2005)
  • "Household equipment" volume index: 136 in October 2005 (steadiness toward the end of the year)
  • New car registrations: upward trend during 2005, with both value index and volume index increasing
  • GDP growth prediction for 2005: 1.4 percent (predicted by various sources, including businessreview.com and the International Monetary Fund)
  • Inflation rate prediction for 2005: 1.9 percent (predicted by the International Monetary Fund)
  • Unemployment rate prediction: 8 percent (slightly higher than in 2005)
  • GDP growth prediction for 2006: 2 percent (predicted by businessreview.com and the International Monetary Fund)

Sources:

  • Businessreview.com (Brussels, November 2005)
  • Statistics Belgium (December 21, 2005)
  • International Monetary Fund (IMF, September 2005)
  • National Bank of Belgium (sourced by businessreview.com)