COVID-19 Pandemic Affects Scarlet Fever Cases in China

Strategic Insights -

Research conducted by the National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with other institutions, examined the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the epidemiological patterns of scarlet fever in China. The study analyzed the data from 2005 to 2024, including the periods before, during, and after the pandemic. The results showed significant differences in the annual morbidity rates among the three periods, indicating the need for tight surveillance programs to protect populations against future pandemics.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study analyzed 876,680 cases of scarlet fever reported in China between 2005 and 2024, with a crude annual incidence of 3.22/100,000.
  • The annual morbidity rates for the pre-COVID-19 (2005-2019), during COVID-19 (2020-2022), and post-COVID-19 (2023-2024) periods were 3.56, 1.58, and 3.25/100,000, respectively.
  • Significant differences were observed among the periods, with the highest incidence rate observed in the pre-COVID-19 period.
  • The study used descriptive analysis, spatial autocorrelation analysis, and a seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model to evaluate the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the disease.
  • The researchers found that tight surveillance programs are needed to protect populations against future pandemics.
  • The study highlights the importance of monitoring and controlling infectious diseases, especially during and after a pandemic.

Statistics:

  • 876,680 cases of scarlet fever were reported in China between 2005 and 2024.
  • The crude annual incidence of scarlet fever was 3.22/100,000.
  • The annual morbidity rates for the pre-COVID-19, during COVID-19, and post-COVID-19 periods were 3.56, 1.58, and 3.25/100,000, respectively.
  • The number of cases reported during the pre-COVID-19 period (2005-2019) was 736,171.
  • The number of cases reported during the COVID-19 period (2020-2022) was 98,242.
  • The number of cases reported during the post-COVID-19 period (2023-2024) was 42,267.

Sources:

  • Effect of nonpharmaceutical interventions on the epidemic trends of scarlet fever in China: a population-based surveillance and modelling study. International Journal of Infectious Diseases, 2025;158:107969.
  • National Institute for Communicable Disease Control and Prevention.
  • National Key Laboratory of Intelligent Tracking and Forecasting for Infectious Diseases.
  • Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention.
  • International Journal of Infectious Diseases (Elsevier Sci Ltd, 125 London Wall, London, England).