COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Worsen Healthcare Workforce Shortages

Strategic Insights -

Research from George Mason University reveals that vaccine mandates may exacerbate existing workforce shortages in the US healthcare industry. The study, which analyzed data from the Current Population Survey 2021 to 2022, found that workers in healthcare-specific occupations were more likely to leave the industry in response to mandates, leading to a decline in the probability of working in healthcare by 6%. The findings suggest trade-offs faced by health policymakers seeking to achieve multiple health objectives.

Key Takeaways:

  • Vaccine mandates may worsen healthcare workforce shortages, with a decline in the probability of working in healthcare by 6% following adoption of a state-level mandate.
  • Workers in healthcare-specific occupations are more likely to leave the industry in response to mandates and are slower to be replaced than workers in non-healthcare occupations.
  • The impact of COVID-19 vaccine mandates on shortages is ex ante ambiguous, with potential benefits of increasing perceived safety of the healthcare industry and potential drawbacks of pushing workers away from the industry.
  • The study combined monthly data from the Current Population Survey 2021 to 2022 with difference-in-differences methods to study the effects of state vaccine mandates on employment transitions into and out of the industry.
  • The research aimed to inform health policymakers seeking to achieve multiple health objectives, including controlling the COVID-19 pandemic while also addressing existing workforce shortages.

Statistics:

  • 6% decline in the probability of working in healthcare following adoption of a state-level mandate.
  • Workers in healthcare-specific occupations leave the industry at higher rates in response to mandates ( exact data not available).
  • It takes longer to replace workers in healthcare-specific occupations than non-healthcare occupations ( exact data not available).

Sources:

  • Labour Economics (2025);96
  • NewsRx LLC (2025). Researchers from George Mason University Report Recent Findings in COVID-19 (Promoting Public Health With Blunt Instruments: Evidence From Vaccine Mandates). Vaccine Weekly.
  • National Institute on Mental Health of the National Institutes of Health
  • Russell Sage Foundation