Critical Habitat Shifts Threaten North Atlantic Right Whales

Strategic Insights -

Researchers at Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences in East Boothbay, Maine, have studied the impact of climate shifts on the critically endangered North Atlantic right whale. Traditional conservation strategies are being challenged by abrupt changes in the whale's distribution caused by recent climatic shifts in traditional habitats. The study, supported by the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA), has used boosted regression tree algorithms to build models of historical and future distributions of Eubalaena glacialis foraging habitat on the Northwest Atlantic Shelf.

Key Takeaways:

  • The study found that ocean bottom conditions and bathymetry are important covariates in predicting foraging habitat suitability for North Atlantic right whales.
  • Historical (1990-2015) projections aligned with known areas of high foraging habitat suitability as well as potential suitable areas on the Labrador Shelf.
  • Future projections suggest that the suitability of potential foraging habitat will decrease in parts of the Gulf of Maine and southwestern Gulf of Saint Lawrence, while potential habitat will be maintained or improved on the western Scotian Shelf, in the Bay of Fundy, on the Newfoundland and Labrador shelves, and at some locations along the continental shelf breaks.
  • Suitable habitat for North Atlantic right whales is projected to decline, with potential foraging habitats emerging in areas such as the Bay of Fundy and the western Scotian Shelf.
  • The study suggests that directing some survey efforts toward emerging potential foraging habitats can enable conservation management to anticipate the type of distribution shifts that have led to high mortality in the past.

Statistics:

  • 0.9: The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for the models used to predict foraging habitat suitability.
  • 1990-2015: The period of historical projections.
  • 2046-2065 and 2066-2085: The time ranges for future projections.
  • RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5: The representative concentration pathway scenarios used for climate projections.

Sources:

  • Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
  • National Science Foundation (NSF)
  • National Oceanic Atmospheric Admin (NOAA)
  • University of California Press (publisher of Elem Sci Anth)
  • Nicholas R. Record, Tandy Ctr Ocean Forecasting, Bigelow Laboratory for Ocean Sciences
  • Omi H. Johnson, Camille H. Ross, Benjamin Tupper, Stephane Plourde, Caroline Lehoux, Christopher D. Orphanides, and Harvey J. Walsh (additional authors)