Delegate-Selection Rules Influence Presidential Candidate Strategies

Strategic Insights -

A recent study published in the Social Science Quarterly explores the relationship between delegate-selection rules and presidential candidate strategies in the 2004 and 2008 primary campaigns. Researchers found that candidates consider the rules of the game, including the type of contest, number of delegates at stake, and delegate-allocation method, when allocating resources such as advertising and campaign stops. However, the study also discovered differences in how frontrunners and long-shot candidates are influenced by these rules, as well as the impact of financial resources on resource allocation.

Key Takeaways:

  • The competitiveness of the 2008 presidential primaries led to a reconsideration of the role of delegate-selection rules in influencing presidential candidate strategies.
  • Researchers used advertising and candidate state-visit data from the 2004 and 2008 presidential nominating campaigns to examine the factors predicting candidate visits and advertising.
  • The study found that delegate-allocation methods, such as winner-take-all or proportional allocation, significantly influence where candidates allocate their resources.
  • Candidates consider the number of delegates at stake and whether the contest is a primary or caucus when deciding where to allocate resources.
  • Frontrunners and long-shot candidates differ in their response to delegate-selection rules, with frontrunners tending to focus on delegate-rich states.
  • Financial resources also play a significant role in resource allocation, with candidates with more resources able to allocate their resources more strategically.
  • The study found that these rules matter despite the increasing homogeneity of delegate-allocation methods within each party.

Statistics:

  • 2004 and 2008: Two presidential nominating campaigns used in the study.
  • 90.4% of delegates in the Democratic Party were allocated proportionally in 2008.
  • 9.6% of delegates in the Republican Party were allocated winner-take-all in 2008.
  • Average number of delegates at stake for a candidate in a given state was 53.

Sources:

  • Ridout, T. N., et al. "Following the Rules? Candidate Strategy in Presidential Primaries." Social Science Quarterly, vol. 90, no. 4, 2009, pp. 777-795.
  • Author's contact information: T.N. Ridout, Washington State University, 816 Johnson Tower, Troy Ln, Pullman, WA 99164, USA.
  • Publisher's contact information: Wiley-Blackwell Publishing, Inc., Commerce Place, 350 Main St., Malden 02148, MA, USA.