Democrats Plan to Make Trump's Tax and Spending Bill a Campaign Issue in 2026 Midterms

Strategic Insights -

President Donald Trump's massive tax and spending package is set to become the central issue in the 2026 midterm elections as Democrats plan to use its deep cuts to Medicaid and food assistance to rally voters against Republicans. Despite a wide swath of Americans being unaware of the details of the legislation, both parties are poised to define the bill to voters over the next 16 months, with Republicans struggling to sell the bill's tax and immigration provisions.

According to polls, Americans oppose the bill 2 to 1, with a Washington Post-Ipsos poll conducted last month showing that those who do know about the legislation strongly disapprove. The bill, known as the One Big Beautiful Bill, would extend trillions of dollars in tax cuts from Trump's first term and implement new campaign promises, while spending hundreds of billions of dollars on immigration enforcement and defense.

Key Takeaways:

  • The bill would cut about $1 trillion from Medicaid, the government health insurance program for the poor, along with additional cuts to Medicare and the Affordable Care Act, resulting in at least 17 million people losing health insurance.
  • Democrats are arguing that the bill would hurt working-class Americans, including children, families, women, seniors, and people with disabilities, while Republicans are arguing that the cuts will ensure that Medicaid is available for the most vulnerable and will eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse.
  • The House moderates warned GOP leaders that they could not support a final bill that "threatens access to coverage or jeopardizes the stability of our hospitals and providers".
  • Republicans are trying to deflect criticism of the Medicaid cuts by arguing that many of the people who will lose health insurance are undocumented immigrants, but health policy experts say this argument is a red herring.

Statistics:

  • The bill would extend trillions of dollars in tax cuts from Trump's first term to 2025.
  • The bill would implement new campaign promises, such as eliminating income taxes on tips and overtime wages.
  • The bill would spend hundreds of billions of dollars on immigration enforcement and defense.
  • At least 17 million people would lose health insurance due to the cuts to Medicaid, Medicare, and the Affordable Care Act.
  • The bill would cut about $1 trillion from Medicaid.
  • The Washington Post-Ipsos poll showed that Americans oppose the bill 2 to 1.
  • The bill would not become law until 2026, the result of a Senate vote on Tuesday.

Sources:

  • Yasmeen Abutaleb and Dylan Wells, "Trump's tax and spending bill faces backlash from Republicans, Democrats and 2026 election messaging", The Washington Post (no date).
  • "Trump's Tax and Spending Bill Fails to Gain Traction", Washington Post-Ipsos Poll (June 2024).
  • Congressional Budget Office, "Estimates of the Effects of the Senate's Tax and Spending Bill" (June 2024).
  • Joan Alker, executive director of Georgetown University's Center for Children and Families, "Undocumented immigrants are not eligible for Medicaid" (no date).