Democrats Pour Millions into New Jersey Governor's Race, But Confidence Wavers

Strategic Insights -

As Election Day draws near, national Democrats are investing heavily in the New Jersey governor's race to keep the state blue, with millions of dollars flowing in to support U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill in her bid against Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Despite this significant financial investment, party insiders are expressing concerns about whether Sherrill can keep the state's governorship, citing worries about her connection to voters, particularly in lower-turnout urban areas, and whether she can deliver a message that will get people to the polls.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Democratic National Committee has announced it is doubling its $1.5 million investment in the New Jersey governor's race, making it the group's largest cash infusion in an off-year election.
  • National Democrats have spent nearly $47 million on both sides since the primary, with significant portions coming from the Democratic Governors Association and other national groups.
  • U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill has raised momentum in fundraising and boasts a strong ground game, but party insiders worry about her ability to reach voters in lower-turnout urban areas and deliver a message that will get people to the polls.
  • Sherrill's campaign has invested specific efforts in messaging in Black and Latino communities across the state, but Democrats are particularly wary of Passaic County, where Trump narrowly won in 2016 after losing by more than 14 percentage points to then-Democratic nominee Joe Biden in 2020.
  • Governor races in New Jersey tend to draw about 40% of registered voters, with turnout becoming key in the election.
  • Ciattarelli is running a very different campaign, holding larger, Trump-style rallies, while Sherrill has done fewer events and favored more controlled gatherings, sparking worries about her ability to connect with voters.
  • Some Democratic insiders question whether the campaign's focus on ties to Trump will be enough to get people to the polls, particularly among independent voters.
  • Sherrill has also focused on affordability, defending abortion rights, and effective leadership, but some critics wonder if these messages will resonate with voters.

Statistics:

  • Total spent in the New Jersey governor's race: nearly $47 million
  • Democratic National Committee investment in the race: $1.5 million doubled, making it the group's largest cash infusion in an off-year election
  • Voter registration edge in New Jersey: more than 850,000 (Democratic)
  • Approval rating of Gov. Phil Murphy: 35% in a September Emerson College poll
  • Approval rating of President Donald Trump: 41% in the same Emerson College poll
  • Total voters contacted by the Sherrill campaign through its coordinated campaign: 4.2 million
  • Total phone calls made by the Sherrill campaign: 1.3 million
  • Total texts sent by the Sherrill campaign: 2.5 million
  • Total doors knocked on by the Sherrill campaign: 409,000

Sources:

  • National Democrats
  • Democratic Governors Association
  • Democratic National Committee
  • U.S. Rep. Mikie Sherrill
  • Gov. Phil Murphy
  • President Donald Trump
  • Vice President Kamala Harris
  • Malcolm Kenyatta (DNC vice chair)
  • Jackie Cornell (former Obama director)
  • Anthony Campisi (Democratic strategist)
  • Katie Brennan (Democratic candidate for state Assembly)
  • Sen. Cory Booker
  • Joe Yerardi (data reporter)
  • Aliya Schneider (politics and government reporter)