Donald Trump Surges to Top of Republican Presidential Polls, Edges Jeb Bush

Strategic Insights -

Real estate magnate Donald Trump has moved to the top of the 2016 Republican presidential field in a CNN poll, edging out rival Jeb Bush and gaining support from Republicans in the last month despite controversy surrounding his statements. Trump was backed by 18 percent of Republicans in the poll, which was conducted entirely after his criticism of Republican Senator John McCain's war record. His lead over Bush, a former Florida governor who was at 15 percent, was within the poll's margin of error.

Key Takeaways:

  • Trump's support among Republicans increased six percentage points since late June, despite a flood of rebukes of Trump after he said McCain was not a war hero because he was captured.
  • None of the other Republican candidates gained double-digit support in the CNN poll, which was conducted among 1,017 adults with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
  • Trump has been criticized by fellow Republican candidates and party leaders for making incendiary comments about Mexican immigrants, belittling McCain's war record, and for his personal attacks against rival Republican White House contenders such as Senator Lindsey Graham and former Texas Governor Rick Perry.
  • Trump's support was gained despite his showing on July 18, when he criticized McCain's war record and said, "There is a movement going on. This is more than me... People are tired of these incompetent politicians in Washington that can't get anything done."
  • Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker had 10 percent support among the Republican and Republican-leaning independent registered voters who were surveyed in the CNN poll.
  • Sixteen Republicans are running for the party's presidential nomination in the November 2016 election.

Statistics:

  • 18% of Republicans supported Trump in the CNN poll.
  • 15% of Republicans supported Bush in the CNN poll.
  • Trump's support among Republicans increased by 6 percentage points since late June.
  • The CNN poll was conducted among 1,017 adults with a margin of error of 3.5 percentage points.
  • The poll was conducted from July 22-25.

Sources:

  • CNN poll conducted July 22-25 among 1,017 adults.
  • CNN's "State of the Union"
  • ABC's "This Week"
  • CNN article: "Donald Trump's candidacy 'is not necessarily moving the cause of conservatism forward'"