Doubts Over Military and Political Success of Iraq Bombardment

Strategic Insights -

The military and political success of the four-day bombing campaign in Iraq is in serious doubt as President Saddam Hussein remains firmly in control, and the US and United Nations policies towards him are in disarray. Despite the US and Britain's claims of achieving their military objective, the Iraqi leader has emerged seemingly emboldened, claiming victory for his government and people against the "enemies of God." The bombing raids have also created deep divisions in the UN Security Council on whether an effective approach to Iraq can be salvaged from the rubble of the campaign.

Key Takeaways:

  • President Saddam Hussein remains firmly in control of Iraq, despite the four-day bombing campaign by the US and Britain.
  • The US and Britain's policies towards Saddam Hussein are in disarray, with deep divisions in the UN Security Council on how to proceed.
  • The Iraqi leader has emerged seemingly emboldened, claiming victory for his government and people against the "enemies of God."
  • The Pentagon has downgraded expectations about the campaign's impact, with General Henry Shelton conceding that only about one-third of its targets were destroyed or seriously damaged.
  • The US believes it has caused significant damage in Iraq, but that President Hussein could rebuild an arsenal of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons within a year.
  • Professor Bill Mitchell, a former national security studies director at the US Air Force Academy, predicts that Saddam will be "as strong as ever" two weeks from now.
  • The bombing raids have left a schism in the UN Security Council, with Russia, China, and France expected to push for the removal of the Australian chief weapons inspector, Mr. Richard Butler.

Statistics:

  • 415 laser-guided cruise missiles were fired during the four-day assault, each costing between $US750,000 and $US1.2million.
  • Only 290 were fired in the 41-day Gulf War.
  • The US and British missiles destroyed or seriously damaged only about one-third of its targets.
  • The Pentagon believes that President Hussein could rebuild an arsenal of chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons within a year.

Sources:

  • Reuters (The New York, Monday)
  • Reuters (circa)
  • Pentagon
  • British Prime Minister Tony Blair
  • Professor Bill Mitchell