Downballot Contests Steal the Limelight in Unpredictable Virginia Governor's Race

Strategic Insights -

The highly anticipated 2025 Virginia governor's race has taken a backseat to two downballot contests, with the scandals surrounding Democratic attorney general nominee Jay Jones and Republican lieutenant governor nominee John Reid dominating the headlines. The controversies have led to a complex and intriguing test of voter impact, with both parties trying to capitalize on the issues to sway voters in their favor. The Jones scandal, involving violent text messages sent in 2022, has emerged as the focal point of Republicans' closing arguments, while the Reid controversy, sparked by lewd photos posted on a social media account, has led to some conservatives distancing themselves from the nominee. As the election approaches on November 4, the stakes are high for both parties, with the outcome of these downballot contests potentially affecting the outcome of the governor's race.

Key Takeaways:

  • The Jay Jones scandal, including violent text messages sent in 2022, has become the central issue in Republicans' closing arguments in the governor's race.
  • Jones apologized for the texts, saying he was ashamed and embarrassed, but Republicans have continued to raise questions about his behavior.
  • The Reid controversy, sparked by lewd photos posted on a social media account, has led to some conservatives distancing themselves from the nominee, despite Reid's attempts to stay in the race.
  • The Jones scandal erupted just as early voting was underway, with over 350,000 ballots already cast, and has been a major focus of Republican efforts to sway voters.
  • The outcome of the downballot contests has the potential to affect the outcome of the governor's race, with all 100 seats in the House of Delegates also on the ballot.
  • The Republican Attorneys General Association has showered $8.5 million on the Miyares campaign, more than it has ever given to a Virginia race, in recognition of Miyares's competitive position in the election.

Statistics:

  • 350,000 ballots had already been cast as the Jones scandal erupted, with early voting having begun on September 19.
  • Abigail Spanberger has consistently led in polling, with a 12-point margin over Winsome Earle-Sears in a recent Washington Post-Schar School poll.
  • The same poll found Hashmi leading Reid in the lieutenant governor's race by four points and Jones leading Miyares by six points, both within the survey's margin of error.
  • Since 2021, state attorneys general have filed over 50 lawsuits against President Trump, including a challenge to $11 billion in cuts to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention grants that resulted in blue states recovering 80 percent of their money while red states recovered 5 percent.

Sources:

  • The Washington Post-Schar School poll
  • National Review
  • Richmond Times-Dispatch
  • KFF Health News
  • Politico
  • The Republican Attorneys General Association