Duggan's Independent Bid for Governor: Potential Path to Victory in Michigan

Strategic Insights -

Michigan mayor Mike Duggan is gaining traction in a potential bid for governor as an independent candidate, according to a pair of polls. His team's first order of business is to convince voters that an independent candidacy is viable, and Duggan is currently sitting in third place with 26% support. A separate poll found that 58% of voters surveyed were open to voting for an independent for governor. With a three-way contest emerging between Duggan, Republican Rep. John James, and a Democrat from the August primary, Michigan's governor's race is shaping up to be highly dynamic.

Key Takeaways:

  • Duggan's campaign is focusing on convincing voters that an independent candidacy is viable in a state where an independent has never been elected governor.
  • A new poll conducted by Schoen Cooperman Research for Duggan's campaign found him in third place with 26% support, behind Democrat Jocelyn Benson and Republican Rep. John James.
  • A separate poll commissioned by the Detroit Chamber of Commerce indicated that 58% of voters surveyed were open to voting for an independent for governor.
  • Duggan, a three-term Detroit mayor, announced his campaign for governor as an independent in December 2024, with a focus on traveling across the state to introduce himself to voters outside of suburban Detroit.
  • Duggan's approval rating has been above 80% in Detroit proper, but after ten months of campaigning across Michigan, he's showing some traction statewide.
  • Duggan's campaign is benefitting from the dynamic nature of the governor's race, which is expected to feature a three-way contest between Duggan, James, and a Democrat from the August primary.

Statistics:

  • 26%: Duggan's current level of support in a poll conducted by Schoen Cooperman Research.
  • 30%: Jocelyn Benson's level of support in the Schoen poll.
  • 29%: Rep. John James' level of support in the Schoen poll.
  • 58%: Percentage of voters surveyed who were open to voting for an independent for governor, according to a poll commissioned by the Detroit Chamber of Commerce.
  • 600: Number of likely voters sampled in the Schoen poll, conducted from October 9-14 with a +/- 4% margin of error.
  • 4%: Margin of error for the Schoen poll.
  • 600: Number of registered voters surveyed in the Chamber poll, conducted from September 10-14 with a +/- 4% margin of error.

Sources:

  • Axios, "Duggan on his stubbornness to run for governor" (https://www.axios.com/local/detroit/2025/01/17/duggan-on-his-stubbornness-run-for-governor)
  • Axios, "Trump's endorsements are only getting more prolific" (https://www.axios.com/2025/07/11/trump-house-lawmakers-endorsements-2026)
  • The Detroit Free Press, "New poll: Good news for Mike Duggan's governor run" (https://www.freep.com/story/news/politics/elections/2025/10/21/new-poll-good-news-mike-duggan-governor/86817710007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=true&gca-epti=z119143p119250c119250e005900v119143b0040xxd004065&gca-ft=123&gca-ds=sophi)
  • Axios, "Michigan will have one of the most competitive Senate races of the cycle" (https://www.axios.com/2025/10/22/senate-republicans-michigan-mike-rogers)
  • Axios, "Michigan Senate primary to feature three well-financed Democrats" (https://www.axios.com/2025/09/23/michigan-senate-mcmorrow-stevens-carpetbagging)
  • The Detroit News, "Duggan's approval rating has been remarkable review of campaign for governor" (https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2025/06/03/detroit-mayor-mike-duggan-voter-approval-rating-remarkable-review-campaign-governor/83992835007/?gnt-cfr=1&gca-cat=p&gca-uir=false&gca-epti=z118331p119250c119250u113631e000000v118331&gca-ft=36&gca-ds=sophi)