Early Voter Support in South Dakota Republican Primary for Governor

Strategic Insights -

Dusty Johnson, the U.S. Representative for South Dakota's at-large congressional district, and incumbent Governor Larry Rhoden are the top contenders in the 2026 Republican primary for governor, according to a recent poll of 500 registered GOP voters. The statewide survey showed Johnson at 28% and Rhoden at 27%, with Attorney General Marty Jackley at 18%. The poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy from April 9-11, with a margin of error of no more than 4.5 percentage points.

Key Takeaways:

  • Johnson has $5.9 million in his campaign committee, which he can shift to a state race, making him a major player in the governor's election, even with an incumbent in the field.
  • Rhoden's ability to sell donors on his vision for another term and raise cash quickly will determine his viability in the race.
  • The poll showed that Trump carries a 68% favorability rating among South Dakota Republicans voters, compared to 52% for Johnson and 40% for Rhoden.
  • Rhoden has a geographical divide with Johnson, leading in West River voters by 27%, followed by Johnson at 24% and Jackley at 23%.
  • Johnson has the highest share of young voters supporting him, with 35% of GOP respondents aged 18-34 saying they would vote for him if the election were held today, followed by Rhoden at 32% and Jackley at 14%.
  • Jackley, who has about $520,000 in his campaign fund, will work to build momentum with endorsements and support from groups such as the National Association of Attorneys General.
  • Hansen, the 39-year-old property rights advocate, has a lot of work to do to translate his efforts into a viable statewide campaign, with 54% of Republican voters surveyed who didn't recognize his name.
  • Doeden's social media outreach hasn't boosted his profile to casual voters, with nearly 60% of poll respondents not recognizing his name.

Statistics:

  • 35% of the vote is needed to avoid a runoff election in the primary.
  • 28% of respondents polled supported Johnson, followed by Rhoden at 27%, and Jackley at 18%.
  • 40% of respondents had a neutral view of Rhoden, compared to 23% for Johnson.
  • 13% of respondents didn't recognize the governor's name, more than half of those who hadn't heard of Johnson.
  • Johnson has a 19% unfavorable rating within the party, compared to 7% for Rhoden and 10% for Jackley.
  • Trump's favorability rating among South Dakota Republicans voters is 68%, compared to 52% for Johnson and 40% for Rhoden.

Sources:

  • Mason-Dixon Polling and Strategy
  • South Dakota News Watch
  • Chiesman Center for Democracy at the University of South Dakota
  • The Institute for Nonprofit News
  • On the Ground news wire
  • https://inn.org/
  • https://www.sdnewswatch.org/poll-dusty-johnson-larry-rhoden-south-dakota-john-thune-kristi-noem/