Early Voting Surges in Florida, Predicting Record Turnout

Strategic Insights -

Voters in Florida are showing a high level of enthusiasm for early voting, with many waiting in line for hours to cast their ballots before Election Day. Estimates suggest that at least a fifth of the 1 million registered voters in Miami-Dade County will have voted by Tuesday, with similar predictions for the rest of the state. The surge in early voting is seen as a key factor in the tight presidential race in Florida, with the winner likely to be the candidate who can best mobilize their supporters to the polls.

Key Takeaways:

  • The line of voters at the Lemon City library in Little Haiti stretched around the corner and down the block two hours before the polls opened on Sunday, with many waiting two hours to vote.
  • Over 90,000 volunteers have been enlisted by the Republicans in Florida to drive people to the polls on Tuesday, with the Bush campaign having the benefit of Governor Jeb Bush's involvement.
  • A Miami Herald poll shows that among the 16% of voters who cast ballots early, Kerry drew 56% compared to Bush's 39%, supporting the theory that early voting works well for Democratic candidates.
  • Many Floridians voted early because they would be out of town on Election Day, including Jenice McLemore, who drove three hours from Miami to Orlando to cast her ballot.
  • The passions of the political debate in Florida have not ebbed since President Bush won the state by just 537 votes in 2000, with voters eager to have their voices heard.
  • Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida, notes that the early voting trend may benefit the Democratic candidate, as these votes will already be in the bank if something goes wrong on Election Day.

Statistics:

  • 1 million registered voters in Miami-Dade County
  • 16% of voters who cast ballots early

+ Kerry: 56%

+ Bush: 39%

  • 90,000 volunteers enlisted by the Republicans in Florida to drive people to the polls on Tuesday
  • 537 votes by which President Bush won Florida in 2000
  • At least 200,000 Floridians expected to have voted by Tuesday, according to estimates

Sources:

  • Miami Herald poll
  • USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup Poll
  • University of South Florida
  • Susan MacManus, political scientist